LME Lead and SHFE Lead Hit New Lows Again, Watch for Subsequent Inventory Changes [SMM Lead Morning Brief]

SMM July 16:

Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,866/mt. Weighed by macro factors and lead ingot inventory buildup, LME lead drifted lower throughout the day. Notably, entering the European session, LME lead inventories surged by another 86,000 mt, accelerating the decline to an intraday low of $1,840/mt, marking a fresh low since April 9, 2025. During the evening session, some bears took profits, helping LME lead pare some losses and eventually settle at $1,850.5/mt, down 0.86%.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2608 contract opened at 15,510 yuan/mt. Under dual pressure from simultaneous inventory buildup in and outside China, SHFE lead continued to consolidate on a subdued note, hitting a low of 15,480 yuan/mt in early trading, a new trough since December 13, 2023. In the latter half of the session, as bearish news was priced in, SHFE lead gradually rebounded to finally close at 15,555 yuan/mt, down 0.61%. Open interest stood at 59,185 lots, up 121 lots from the previous trading day. In addition, open interest for the SHFE lead 2609 contract has reached 113,000 lots, warranting attention on the contract rollover for the most-traded contract.