Demand Drops but Futures Rally? [SMM Iron Ore Daily Review]

Published: Jul 15, 2026 17:33

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Today, iron ore futures showed a strong trend, with the most-traded DCE I2609 contract closing at 762 yuan/mt, up 1.13%. Spot iron ore prices at Qingdao port rose by about 0-2 yuan/mt from the previous trading day due to thin trading. Traders' quoting enthusiasm was moderate, and steel mills' purchase willingness was relatively poor. So far, spot trading volume has been relatively small.

SMM survey confirms that iron ore demand continued to decline. According to the survey, the blast furnace operating rate for 242 steel mills in China reached 89.79% this week, with sample mills' daily average hot metal production at 2.4382 million mt, down 2,400 mt WoW. Fundamentals' support for ore prices continued to weaken. News side, some mine types may implement port cargo pick-up restrictions tomorrow. Market sentiment reacted violently, driving up futures prices, but this cannot provide stable support for ore prices in the long term. Taking into account both supply-demand and sentiment, short-term ore prices may hold up well until market sentiment subsides, with prices reverting to fundamentals. [SMM Steel]

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