Rare Earth Prices Diverge; Upstream Holds Prices Firm, Downstream Waits and Sees [SMM Rare Earth Daily]

SMM, July 15: Rare earth market prices showed divergence today. Specifically, in the oxide market, Pr-Nd oxide prices were flat, dysprosium oxide prices rose by 5,000 yuan/mt, terbium oxide prices fell by 25,000 yuan/mt, gadolinium oxide prices were flat, holmium oxide prices rose by 17,500 yuan/mt, and erbium oxide prices rose by 10,000 yuan/mt.

In the metal market, Pr-Nd alloy prices fell by 5,000 yuan/mt, dysprosium-iron alloy prices rose by 5,000 yuan/mt, terbium metal prices were flat, gadolinium-iron alloy prices were flat, holmium-iron market prices rose by 20,000 yuan/mt, and lanthanum-cerium metal (alloy grade) prices were flat.

In markets outside China, FOB prices for Pr-Nd oxide were flat this week, neodymium oxide FOB prices were flat this week, terbium oxide FOB prices rose by $30/kg this week, dysprosium oxide FOB prices were flat this week, praseodymium metal FOB prices were flat this week, neodymium metal FOB prices were flat this week, and terbium metal FOB prices rose by $40/kg this week.

Currently, rare earth market prices are showing a divergent trend: Pr-Nd prices are trending weak, while dysprosium and holmium prices have adjusted upward. Focusing on the Pr-Nd market, downstream magnetic material enterprises faced less-than-ideal new orders and adopted a cautious stance when purchasing Pr-Nd alloy, mostly restocking based on rigid demand. Although some metal suppliers lowered their offer prices, trading in the metal market remained stagnant. In contrast, prices held steady in the oxide market. As oxide suppliers expect supply may tighten, their willingness to sell at low prices is low, and offers are relatively firm. This has made low-priced cargoes hard to find in the Pr-Nd oxide market, with overall transactions also at a stalemate.

In the medium-heavy rare earth market, dysprosium and holmium product prices edged up. This was mainly because market inquiry activity improved, low-priced oxide cargoes were scarce, suppliers raised their offers accordingly, and metal enterprises followed suit. Terbium oxide prices, however, fell as suppliers lowered their offers due to difficulties in closing deals at high prices and relatively low inquiry prices. Gadolinium product prices remained relatively stable.

Overall, the Pr-Nd market remained stagnant in trading due to insufficient new downstream orders and strong price-holding intentions upstream; meanwhile, the dysprosium and holmium markets saw suppliers raise offer prices as low-priced cargoes decreased. In the short term, Pr-Nd product prices are expected to drift higher, influenced by upstream sentiment to hold prices firm.