Backwardation Spread Widened to 200 Yuan/mt, Shanghai Spot Copper Premiums Continued to Climb [SMM Shanghai Spot Copper]

Published: Jul 13, 2026 15:59

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[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SMM data shows Shanghai social inventory at 85,600 mt, down 19,200 mt WoW from last Thursday, and Jiangsu social inventory at 26,400 mt, down 4,600 mt WoW, indicating rapid destocking. Social inventory has fallen by approximately 60,000 mt over the past two weeks, keeping available spot cargoes persistently tight. According to SMM, the arrival of domestic spot cargoes at some warehouses has remained low, limiting supply-side growth. The backwardation price spread between monthly contracts significantly widened to 200 yuan/mt, leading to higher costs for warehouse warrant transfers and somewhat boosting suppliers’ willingness to sell, but the sentiment to hold prices firm remains. The import window is wide open, but given logistics and customs clearance delays, near-term spot market replenishment will remain limited. In summary, driven by rapid destocking, a widening backwardation structure, and firm supplier pricing, SHFE spot copper is expected to maintain a premium against the 2607 contract tomorrow.

SMM, July 13:

Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the current-month 2607 contract were quoted at a premium of 160–270 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 215 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day and hitting a new high for the year. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2607 contract opened lower with a gap and then continued to weaken. The opening price was 103,550 yuan/mt, and after opening, the price gapped lower and mainly traded between 103,330 and 103,500 yuan/mt. Subsequently, the price kept declining, reaching a session low near the close, ending at 103,050 yuan/mt. The backwardation spread between the current and next-month contracts ranged from 90 to 200 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2607 contract for the current month stood at a profit of 230–490 yuan/mt.

During the day, the sales sentiment index for copper cathode in Shanghai was 3.35, up 0.07 MoM, while the purchasing sentiment index was 2.84, down 0.29 MoM. Historical data can be queried from the database. At the start of morning trading, supplier quotations diverged: some suppliers offered Dajiang PC, Jinchuan ISA, etc. at a premium of 200 yuan/mt, while others offered Zhongtiaoshan and Tiefeng at a premium of 160 yuan/mt. High-quality Guixi was quoted at a premium of 270–300 yuan/mt. Later, quotations became more uniform, with high-quality copper such as Guixi, Jinchuan plate, and Jintong plate offered at a premium of 240–280 yuan/mt. Standard-quality copper, including Dajiang PC, Jinchuan ISA, Jinguan, Jinxin, and Jintong PC, was quoted at a premium of 180–200 yuan/mt. In the second trading session, suppliers lowered offers slightly. Standard-quality copper like Dajiang PC, Jinchuan ISA, and Tiefeng was transacted at a premium of around 160–170 yuan/mt, registered SX-EW copper at about 120 yuan/mt, and non-registered copper at 40–50 yuan/mt.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, SMM recorded Shanghai social inventory at 85,600 mt, down 19,200 mt WoW from last Thursday, while Jiangsu social inventory was 26,400 mt, down 4,600 mt WoW, reflecting rapid destocking. Social inventory destocked approximately 60,000 mt over the past two weeks, keeping available spot supply tight. According to SMM, arrivals of domestic spot cargoes at some warehouses continued to be low, limiting supply-side growth. The backwardation spread between the current and next-month contracts widened sharply to 200 yuan/mt, raising suppliers’ rollover costs. While their willingness to sell increased somewhat, sentiment to hold prices firm also remained. The import window was wide open, but given logistics and customs clearance delays, near-term replenishment in the spot market will be limited. Overall, driven by rapid destocking, widening backwardation, and suppliers holding prices firm, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2607 contract are expected to maintain a premium tomorrow.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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