Precious metals market saw deep long-short battle platinum price was in the doldrums intraday, spot market consumption was weak [SMM Daily Review]

Impala Platinum’s mine in Rustenburg, North West province, South Africa, resumed operations on July 29, 2026, after an eight-day comprehensive safety shutdown, with more than 60,000 employees expected to return to work gradually. The shutdown was intended to review underground safety systems and strengthen controls over transport equipment and high-risk operations.

[SMM Express] UBS has adopted a more bearish outlook for palladium, lowering its price forecast to around US$1,100/oz as it expects the global market to shift into a supply surplus during 2026. The bank projects an oversupply of approximately 200,000 oz, citing rising recycled metal availability alongside weakening demand from the automotive and investment sectors. Although global mine production is expected to decline compared with 2025, UBS believes the increase in recycled palladium will more than offset lower primary supply. Softer consumption from the autocatalyst industry, which remains the largest source of palladium demand, is also expected to weigh on market fundamentals. The bank noted that China's record palladium imports during the first half of the year were largely driven by the establishment of a new trading exchange rather than stronger underlying industrial demand. As a result, the import surge is not viewed as a signal of improving consumption. Looking ahead, UBS expects the combination of surplus supply and subdued end-user demand to maintain downward pressure on palladium prices. Market participants are likely to monitor recycling flows, vehicle production trends and developments in the automotive sector for further indications of the metal's price direction.