SMM 10-12% High-Grade NPI and Indonesian NPI FOB Prices Drop, Market Sees Intensified Tug-of-War

On August 21, The Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. signed Executive Order No. 122, establishing a unified policy framework for the development of the country’s critical minerals industry. The policy aims to promote mineral exploration, development, processing and utilization, while encouraging investment in higher-value downstream industries. The framework calls for streamlined and digitalized mining permits, as well as investment incentives for downstream refining, battery production and related industries. Domestic processing facilities will also receive priority access to mineral ores at fair-market prices. The government has identified at least 9 million hectares of prospective mineral areas for further exploration. Nickel is among the Philippines’ key mineral resources. The policy is expected to support greater domestic processing and downstream development, potentially increasing the value added of Philippine nickel resources over the longer term.

Indonesia’s key nickel-producing regions are expected to see generally manageable weather this week. Central Sulawesi (Morowali) is forecast to receive 20–30 mm of rainfall, with limited disruption expected. Halmahera may receive 30–40 mm, with heavier showers potentially causing temporary disruptions to mining and logistics, while Obi Island is forecast at 20–30 mm, supporting largely normal operations. In the Philippines, Palawan is forecast to receive 40–60 mm, with frequent showers potentially affecting mine-road transportation and vessel loading. Surigao is expected to receive 20–30 mm, with moderate rainfall posing limited disruption risks. Zambales is also forecasted at 20–30 mm, with intermittent showers and thunderstorms potentially causing temporary disruptions to mining, transportation and port operations.

[8.24 Morning Meeting Summary] The Trump administration announced a new round of "the toughest ever" economic sanctions against Iran and threatened economic action against any country with commercial ties to Iran. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract plunged in the night session before rebounding slightly in the morning session, closing at 128,860 yuan/mt as of the morning session close, down 0.67%. Currently, the US is expanding the scale of treasury repurchase, with the macro environment favoring base metals. However, LME and China inventories continued to accumulate, with visible inventory at historical highs. In the short term, the trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is 125,000-130,000 yuan/mt.