Market wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and spot price gains are limited [SMM SiMn Weekly Review]

As of this Friday, SiMn 6517 (cash) in the northern market was at 5,700-5,750 yuan/mt, up WoW; in the southern market, SiMn 6517 (cash) was at 5,750-5,800 yuan/mt, up from last Friday, while SiMn 6014 (cash) was at 5,450-5,500 yuan/mt, flat WoW.

Recently, SiMn futures have been consolidating on a subdued note in a narrow range, with strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. Spot prices have edged up slightly, but futures have not been able to drive spot prices significantly higher.

Cost side: for manganese ore, spot ore prices remain at high levels; on electricity, tariffs in Guangxi and Guizhou have been raised and remain high with no decline expected, Yunnan is about to enter the rainy season and electricity prices are about to be lowered, while in Inner Mongolia during the low-wind season, some areas are experiencing power rationing, and electricity prices may be raised.Under the interplay of various factors, SiMn overall production costs remain high, with smelters under evident pressure.

Supply side: in Inner Mongolia, capacity releases coexist with blast furnace maintenance, keeping operations relatively stable. In Ningxia, producers are operating with relatively small fluctuations, maintaining certain production enthusiasm; in south China, alloy plants are operating at relatively low rates overall, primarily purchasing as rigid demand, with a sluggish market trading atmosphere.Overall industry supply changes are limited, with finished product inventories staying high, and the high destocking pressure is putting some constraints on SiMn spot and futures prices in the short term.

Demand side: end-use consumption of alloys remains sluggish, with overall downstream purchasing sentiment weak. Steel mills and traders are taking a cautious approach to restocking, which is unlikely to provide effective support to the SiMn market in the short term. Steel mill tenders are gradually coming in. HBIS's SiMn purchase volume for July 2026 was 15,400 mt, flat MoM from June (15,400 mt). The first-round inquiry price was 5,900 yuan/mt. The market is waiting to see the final tender price.

Under a loose supply-demand balance, SiMn is expected to consolidate on a subdued note in the short term. Going forward, market attention should focus on the final pricing of SiMn tenders and fluctuations in futures.