MMi Daily Iron Ore Report (July 10)

India’s core sector output grew 4.8% YoY in August 2026, easing from 5% in July, while steel output rose 3.4%. Iron ore production increased 5.5%, while cement output rose 12.5% and electricity generation 11.6%. Core sector output grew 4.3% during April-August 2026, compared with 2.4% a year earlier. For the steel market, higher steel, iron ore and cement output indicates continued activity across steelmaking and construction-related sectors which could support steel demand in the near term. ICRA expects overall industrial output growth to ease to around 5%-6% in August from 6.7% in July, suggesting some moderation in near-term industrial activity.

[Turkey] Demand in Turkey's domestic rebar market has gradually slowed, with the previous unilateral upward trend now showing signs of fatigue. Although some mills continued to push offers higher today, they encountered minimal buying interest. On the domestic front, the Turkish rebar ex-works price held flat at 630 USD/tonne EXW (excluding VAT). Regionally, mainstream mills in the Marmara area maintained their ex-works quotes at a high of 650 USD/tonne EXW; Izmir mills concentrated their offers around 625–630 USD/tonne EXW, while a mill in Iskenderun prepared to take orders at 620 USD/tonne EXW. In the export sector, the Turkish rebar FOB price rose to 615 USD/tonne FOB. Bolstered by robust domestic sales earlier, most mills have already locked in half or even all of their planned October production volumes. Facing negligible allocation pressure, mills are maintaining firm export offers and showing no urgency to close new deals, instead anticipating a potential resurgence in EU replenishment demand for November shipments.

India’s large domestic market can reduce the impact of the US 50% additional tariff on most imported steel. While some Indian steel products have already faced tariffs of more than 200% in the US for years, according to Jindal Steel chairman Naveen Jindal. Finished steel consumption rose 7.9% YoY to 56 million tonnes in April-July 2026, compared with 54.7 million tonnes of finished steel production, indicating that domestic demand remained ahead of local finished-steel output during the period. For the Indian steel market, continued growth in domestic consumption could support mill production and reduce dependence on exports to the US. If infrastructure, construction and manufacturing activity remain healthy, steel demand and production could continue to expand, while imports, input costs and the overall supply-demand balance will influence prices and margins. Jindal also said Indian producers will need to meet EU CBAM requirements to maintain access to the European market.