As of July 10, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) stood at -$132.84/dmt, down $4.59/dmt from the prior reading of -$128.25/dmt. The payable indicator for 20% grade domestic trade ore was reported at 98%-99%, up 0.5 percentage point WoW.
Transaction activity in the spot copper concentrates market increased slightly this week compared to the prior week, as a mine initiated a tender. In the spot market, a trader sold 10 kt of clean ore to a smelter at a $15/dmt discount to the average of the SMM and Fastmarkets indices, for August shipment with QP at M+5. A trader sold a small parcel of land-shipped ore to a smelter at a transaction price around -$130/dmt. A trader offered H2 cargoes to smelters at fixed prices between -$145/dmt and -$140/dmt, or alternatively attempted to quote at a discount of approximately $25/dmt to the index. Market talk suggested a final deal was concluded at a fixed price of -$140/dmt. On the mine tender front, the results of Hudbay’s Constancia tender were released. On the trader side, a 10 kt spot cargo for 2026 was transacted below -$200/dmt, while a 10 kt cargo for 2027 and a 10 kt cargo for 2028 each fetched negative triple-digit figures, all with QP at M+4. Meanwhile, a large mine issued a new tender for 100,000 mt in physical content of copper concentrates, comprising 20,000 mt in 2026, and 40,000 mt each in 2027 and 2028, with QP at M+4 and a bid deadline of July 14. Additionally, SMM learned that the spot EXW payable indicators for domestically traded copper concentrates in north-west China currently trend above 99%. Overall, the spot copper concentrates market remained locked in an intense low-level game this week, with transaction prices stuck deep in negative territory. Although some smelters still have rigid restocking demand, their purchase willingness for low-priced feedstock has grown cautious, as sliding TC has significantly compressed copper smelting margins. In the short term, spot TC continues to face downward pressure, but further downside is meeting mounting resistance.
On July 9, Ivanhoe Mines stated that output from the Kamoa-Kakula copper complex in the DRC is set to rise significantly in H2, driven by higher mining rates and inventory depletion. The mine produced 64,328 mt of copper (copper anode, blister copper, and saleable concentrates) in Q2, bringing the H1 total to 135,745 mt. The company maintained its full-year 2026 production guidance at 290,000–330,000 mt, implying approximately 28% HoH growth in H2 output at the guidance midpoint.
On July 8, BHP announced it had awarded a contract worth over A$200 million (approximately $139 million) to China Nerin Engineering Co., Ltd. for the design and supply of key process facilities for the Olympic Dam smelter and refinery expansion project in South Australia. The contract will be executed in phases, with equipment supply subject to BHP’s final investment decision. Nerin’s work under the contract is tentatively scheduled for completion in early 2032, while BHP had previously listed 2032 as the potential first production date for the expansion.
On July 7, BHP announced that its Escondida copper mine expansion project in Chile had received its first major environmental permit, officially launching the project with a total investment of approximately $14.7 billion. The Antofagasta Environmental Assessment Commission in Chile has approved early-stage work involving sulfide leaching and power upgrades, costing approximately $1.3 billion.
On July 10, SMM copper concentrates inventory at eleven ports stood at 690,200 mt in physical content, up 33,200 mt in physical content from July 3. The main increases came from Yantai Port and Nanjing Port, up 23,400 mt and 15,000 mt WoW, respectively.
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