H1 Refined Cobalt Price Surged over 97% YoY; Demand Remains the Current Focus; What Can the Market Expect Going Forward? [Weekly Observation]

SMM, July 10: This week, cobalt market product prices continued to consolidate on a weak note. Although refined cobalt prices edged up by 2,000 yuan/mt, end-use demand showed no substantial improvement, and the recovery of downstream demand remains the eagerly anticipated future for the entire cobalt industry chain. Looking back at refined cobalt prices in H1 2026, despite the drag from weak downstream demand performance, the overall price center still rose significantly compared with the same period in 2025, with a YoY surge of as much as 97.22%........ SMM has compiled the price changes of cobalt series products this week and the price review of the cobalt market in H1, as follows:

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According to SMM spot price data, refined cobalt spot prices edged up this week. As of July 10, spot refined cobalt prices rose to 380,000-387,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 383,500 yuan/mt, up by 2,000 yuan/mt from 381,500 yuan/mt on July 3, an increase of 0.52%.

》View SMM cobalt and lithium spot prices

Supply side, mainstream smelters slightly raised EXW prices to 390,000 yuan/mt; trader spot-futures price spreads remained in the range of parity to a premium of 10,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, downstream changes were not significant this week, with most enterprises maintaining restocking for rigid demand, and end-use demand had not yet shown substantial improvement. In the short term, with relatively weak downstream support and high industry inventory, refined cobalt prices are likely to mainly consolidate; however, for refined cobalt prices to enter a recovery path, they still depend on the upward momentum of upstream categories such as cobalt intermediate products and cobalt sulphate.

Cobalt Salt ( and ):

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According to SMM spot price data, cobalt sulphate spot prices remained in the doldrums this week. As of July 10, spot cobalt sulphate prices fell to 84,200-86,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 85,100 yuan/mt, down by 900 yuan/mt from July 3, a drop of 1.05%.

》View SMM cobalt and lithium spot prices

According to SMM, trading in the cobalt sulphate market remained sluggish this week, and prices returned to a weak, grinding lower trend. Supply side, quotations from primary smelters remained firm, with mainstream enterprises continuing to hold the 85,000 yuan/mt level; however, some recycled-material smelters lowered their offers again to promote shipments, and the lowest offer in the market has now fallen back to 80,000-81,000 yuan/mt. Demand side showed no significant improvement, downstream enterprises mostly scheduled production pace based on orders, and product settlements generally referenced monthly average prices. To avoid risks from spot purchase-sales price spreads, most enterprises mainly adopted a wait-and-see approach at the beginning of the month, and restocking activities will likely take place after mid-to-late July, or possibly be postponed to August. Recently, a few companies had low inventory and intended to restock, but their psychological price level was below 80,000 yuan/mt, limiting actual completion. In the short term, the cobalt sulphate price is expected to consolidate on a subdued note, and sustained recovery in the market will depend on the realization of downstream concentrated restocking demand.

side:

According to SMM spot price data, spot cobalt chloride quotations edged down 250 yuan/mt early in the week and then held steady. As of July 10, spot cobalt chloride was quoted steady at 102,000–104,000 yuan/mt, averaging 103,000 yuan/mt, down 0.24% from July 3.

In the spot market, according to SMM, the cobalt chloride market remained sluggish this week. Inquiry activity improved slightly from the prior period, but actual concluded deals were still very limited. On the supply side, smelter quotations were broadly stable, but with no sizeable transactions, current offer prices mainly reflected seller sentiment, and their actual reference value remained to be verified. On the demand side, the “rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn” mentality continued to dominate. Downstream buyers were still assessing whether the current price plateau was a brief pause or a stage bottom, and their willingness to enter the market was low, with an overall wait-and-see sentiment remaining strong. In the short term, cobalt chloride prices are likely to move sideways, with limited downside room.

side:

According to SMM spot price data, spot Co3O4 quotations also stabilized temporarily after a decline on the first trading day this week. As of July 10, spot Co3O4 was quoted steady at 310,000–330,000 yuan/mt, averaging 320,000 yuan/mt, down 2,500 yuan/mt or 0.78% from July 3.

From the spot market perspective, the Co3O4 market continued to be sluggish this week, and actual deals remained scarce. On the supply side, after the half-year mark, previously bearish enterprises had largely completed destocking, easing the pressure from concentrated sell-offs, and quotations stabilized. On the demand side, although downstream cathode material plants had a procurement window, during the period of continued price consolidation at lows, they were still mainly pressing for lower prices and restocking only small volumes on demand, with little willingness to increase purchases. The sluggish market continued to weigh on upstream shipment pace. In the short term, the Co3O4 price trend will remain anchored to the cobalt salt segment price direction and is expected to mainly move sideways in line with cobalt chloride.

On the news front, the first half of 2026 has concluded. Reviewing the cobalt market performance in H1, although refined cobalt prices were dragged down by weak downstream demand, due to the impact of a series of measures such as the DRC's cobalt export ban previously, refined cobalt prices overall remained fluctuating at relatively high levels over the past three years. According to SMM historical prices, in H1 2026, the average spot price of refined cobalt was 424,325.43 yuan/mt, up by 209,170.73 yuan/mt or 97.22% from 215,154.7 yuan/mt in H1 2025.

On a monthly basis:

In January 2026, affected by profit-taking, weakening macro sentiment, and the drag from declining other metals, refined cobalt prices retreated after a rapid rise and then stabilized at relatively low levels for a long period. Supported by strong raw material costs, other cobalt products, while not declining in price, lacked upward momentum and entered a stable state.

During the Chinese New Year period, affected by various bullish news, refined cobalt prices briefly rebounded; however, subsequently, under the influence of domestic and international arbitrage, low downstream stockpiling demand, and capital suppression, prices continued to grind lower, returning to low levels. End-users operated with low inventories, making just-in-time procurement only. The cobalt salt market remained divided, with upstream holders expecting price rises and unwilling to sell at lower prices, while only enterprises under capital pressure cut prices to sell. Downstream buyers were unwilling to purchase at high prices without orders, leaving the market sluggish. Prices overall remained stable.

From April to May, downstream production schedules and orders fell short of market expectations. Coupled with most enterprises having relatively ample raw material inventories, purchase willingness was weak, with only small-volume procurement of low-priced raw materials. On the supply side, although the vast majority of smelters held prices firm due to high raw material cost support, some recycling smelters and traders, under capital pressure, sold at discounts, causing prices to slowly grind lower overall.

Entering June 2026, the cobalt market continued to grind lower, with the price centers of various products moving further down. End-use demand for refined cobalt remained weak, and combined with some enterprises facing capital and financial report pressures, they continued to sell off in spot and futures markets, putting prices under pressure. The cobalt salt segment was affected by weakening production schedules for downstream ternary cathode precursors and Co3O4, with procurement remaining just-in-time and pushing for lower prices, causing transaction centers to continue declining. Cobalt intermediate products edged lower in the tug-of-war between miners holding prices firm and domestic smelters' subdued purchases, with a smaller decline than cobalt salts, further compressing smelting margins. Overall, the strategic supply-demand stalemate persisted: upstream cost support clashed with downstream pressure for lower prices, and some enterprises, pressured by mid-year financial reports and capital, cut prices to sell, further dragging down the market.

Looking ahead to July, in the short term, downstream demand is expected to remain weak, and the high inventories still present in the market will constrain price increases. Prices may consolidate at low levels, with some speculative traders possibly selling off and exiting due to low prices. However, if other cobalt products rise, refined cobalt prices could also follow suit and increase.

For more insights into the cobalt market, check out the , released by SMM in the first ten days of each month. SMM will also publish a review of the 2026 H1 cobalt market and an outlook for H2—stay tuned!