US-Iran Negotiations Are Expected to Boost Copper Prices, While Typhoon Stockpiling Drives Inventory Drawdown [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Summary]

Friday, Jul 10, 2026
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,418.5/mt, dipped to a low of $13,397.5/mt in early trading before gradually drifting higher. Near the end of the session, it reached a high of $13,551/mt and finally closed at $13,481/mt, up 1.71%. Trading volume was 21,800 lots and open interest was 247,000 lots, an increase of 674 lots from the previous trading day, driven by bull additions. The most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 103,750 yuan/mt overnight. In early trading, the price dropped to a low of 103,420 yuan/mt, then drifted higher, touching a high of 104,250 yuan/mt near the close, and finally settled at 103,920 yuan/mt, up 1.58%. Trading volume was 40,100 lots, and open interest was 153,000 lots, down 545 lots from the previous trading day, as bears reduced positions.
[SMM Copper Morning Brief] News:
(1) According to Mining.com, Kazakhstan-based gold producer Solidcore Resources has entered into a cooperation agreement with Minerals Development Oman (MDO) to jointly explore and develop the Khabiyat copper-gold project in Oman. Solidcore can earn a 60% stake in the joint venture through three stages, starting with 20%. The Khabiyat project is the company’s first exploration venture outside Kazakhstan, supporting its growth and diversification strategy. “The Khabiyat project is an important entry point for expanding the company’s operations in the region,” said Vitaly Nesis, CEO of Solidcore. Although the company sold its Russian operations in 2024 to eliminate sanctions-related risks, Solidcore remains Kazakhstan’s second-largest gold producer.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On July 9, SMM #1 copper cathode against the current-month 2606 contract was quoted at premiums of 120-180 yuan/mt, with an average of 150 yuan/mt, up 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2607 contract consolidated before dipping and rebounding. It opened at 102,220 yuan/mt, mostly traded between 102,310 and 102,470 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 102,590 yuan/mt, then edged down to a low of 102,200 yuan/mt before rebounding towards the close to end at 102,340 yuan/mt. The price spread between the front-month and next-month contracts ranged from a contango of 10 yuan/mt to a backwardation of 50 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2607 contract stood between a profit of 70 yuan/mt and 140 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, Typhoon Bavi is expected to continue to have an impact, and downstream copper processors’ pre-stocking demand is still being released, with buying and selling sentiment continuously improving and market trading relatively active. According to SMM data, social inventory in Shanghai was recorded at 104,800 mt, down 17,600 mt WoW; in Jiangsu, social inventory stood at 31,000 mt, down 5,000 mt WoW. SMM noted that the rapid destocking of social inventory, combined with the shift in the inter-month spread to a backwardation structure, has improved delivery margins for suppliers. Some suppliers expect spot premiums to have further upside room in the near term, showing weak willingness to sell at low prices. Although the import window has opened, additional spot supply will be limited in the near term considering logistics and customs clearance delays. Overall, Shanghai spot copper against the SHFE 2607 contract is expected to maintain current premium levels today.
(2) Guangdong: On July 9, spot #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract in Guangdong: high-quality copper was quoted at 100 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was at a premium of 40 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was at a discount of 30 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 102,475 yuan/mt, down 430 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price for SX-EW copper was 102,375 yuan/mt, down 425 yuan/mt. Overall, suppliers actively held prices firm, but downstream users did not follow the increase, resulting in lighter trading volume compared to yesterday.
(3) Imported copper: On July 9, the average warrant price was flat from the previous trading day at $82/mt (price range $75-89/mt); the average B/L price was flat at $82/mt (price range $74-90/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price rose $2/mt from the previous trading day to $52/mt (price range $47-57/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving from July to mid-August.
(4) Secondary copper: On July 9, at 11:30, the futures closing price was 102,340 yuan/mt, down 700 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 150 yuan/mt, up 15 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, secondary copper raw material prices fell 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The sales sentiment index for copper scrap rose to 2.33, while the procurement sentiment index fell to 2.35. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap stood at 1,652 yuan/mt, down 126 yuan/mt. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 690 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, as copper prices rose in late trading, secondary copper raw material traders actively sold or priced their cargo, but secondary copper rod enterprises stopped offering prices to traders near the market close, stating that purchase volumes were already sufficient. Price factors were only marginally related to spot transactions in the secondary copper raw materials market, with secondary copper rod enterprises currently unwilling to procure more.
Prices: On the macro front, Trump stated that Iran expressed willingness for peace talks, and there were reports that Iran had no intention of expanding the conflict. Together with Pakistan’s ongoing mediation efforts, the window for US-Iran negotiations may open again, easing market concerns over intensifying Middle East conflict and providing support for copper prices. Fundamentals: Supply side, arrivals of imported copper were relatively low, and domestic arrivals remained at low levels; demand side, the approaching typhoon prompted downstream users to pick up goods ahead of schedule in a concentrated manner, but overall industry consumption was still in the traditional off-season, with limited sustained demand growth. Inventory: As of Thursday, July 9, SMM copper inventories in major Chinese regions fell 34,900 mt WoW to 165,000 mt. Total inventory increased by 21,300 mt compared to the same period last year, when it stood at 143,700 mt. Overall, copper prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This document does not constitute direct investment research decision-making advice. Clients should make prudent decisions and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by the client are unrelated to SMM.]