Futures:
Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,889/mt, fell first before rising to a high of $1,904/mt during Asian trading hours; after entering the European session, it plunged and gave back all gains to a low of $1,886.5/mt, eventually closing at $1,894.5/mt, up 0.19%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2608 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,085 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 16,095 yuan/mt at the start of trading, then dived to a low of 15,975 yuan/mt, rebounded slightly in the last trading minutes, and finally closed at 16,040 yuan/mt, down 0.62%.
On the macro front:
The US Fed announced the list of heads for five new working groups. China's National Bureau of Statistics: In June 2026, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.0% YoY, and the national producer price index (PPI) rose 4.1% YoY. CAAM: China's NEV production and sales reached 7.438 million units and 7.446 million units, up 6.7% and 7.3% YoY, January-June. The State Council issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Carbon Peaking Action Plan": By 2030, the share of non-fossil energy consumption will reach 25%, and the ownership of new energy vehicles is targeted to reach 30%. The "15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Human Resources and Social Security": During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, a considerable scale of new urban employment will be maintained. The State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters upgraded the emergency response for flood and typhoon prevention in Zhejiang and Fujian from Level 4 to Level 3.
Spot fundamentals:
SHFE lead consolidated on a subdued note, and with ample circulating supply in the market, suppliers mostly sold at discounts. Meanwhile, EXW cargoes from primary lead smelters also saw wider discounts, with quotations in mainstream producing areas at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. In the secondary lead sector, smelters were less willing to sell, and secondary refined lead was quoted at or near parity with the SMM #1 lead average price on EXW basis. Downstream enterprises only maintained just-in-time procurement, with limited inquiries, leading to sluggish transactions in the spot order market.
Inventories: As of July 9, LME lead inventory remained flat at 291,425 mt; as of July 9, total SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions fell by 3,800 mt from July 6.
Lead price forecast for today:
Some primary lead enterprises have gradually completed maintenance, leading to an increase in lead ingot supply. Additionally, several secondary and primary lead producers plan to conduct maintenance in mid-to-late July, which is expected to limit further supply growth. At the same time, the off-season demand characteristics remain pronounced, and just-in-time procurement by downstream users is limited, raising doubts about the sustainability of destocking in social inventory of lead ingots. Currently, downstream enterprises harbor strong wait-and-see sentiment and reduced purchasing willingness. SMM expects lead prices to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.
