[SMM Energy Storage Battery Cell Market Weekly Review 7.09] Lithium Price Linkage Causes Downstream "Cargo Pick-up Delays", 314Ah Dominance Hard to Shake in the Short Term

The energy storage market maintained stable operations this week. In terms of pricing, 314Ah battery cells showed a complex picture of bottom-level prices edging up while high prices remained under pressure. On one hand, as early low-cost raw material inventories at some battery cell manufacturers were depleted and deliveries for historically low-priced orders gradually concluded, the low end of 314Ah cell prices experienced a mild rebound. On the other hand, constrained by the lithium carbonate price linkage mechanism, the overall decline in lithium prices in June left battery cells lacking the momentum for significant price surges. It is worth noting that some manufacturers using the “M-2” linkage mechanism are passing on the high lithium costs from May to their July orders, leading to a temporary uptick in recent cargo pick-up prices. To avoid this cost peak, some downstream clients are cautiously considering delaying cargo pick-ups in hopes of later realizing cost benefits from June’s low lithium prices. In terms of market structure, the 314Ah cell remains firmly in a dominant position at present. Although ultra-large-capacity cells of 500Ah and above have already begun being shipped, they are unlikely to shake the existing fundamentals in the near term. According to SMM forecasts, if the capacity ramp-up progress for each major large-cell capacity meets expectations, ultra-large-capacity cells are expected to see a volume surge in H2 2027, potentially forming a market landscape where they run neck and neck with 314Ah cells.

SMM New Energy Research Department

Wang Cong 021-51666838

Ma Rui 021-51595780

Feng Disheng 021-51666714

Lyu Yanlin 021-20707875

Zhang Haohan 021-51666752

Wang Zihan 021-51666914

Wang Jie 021-51595902

Xu Yang 021-51666760

Chen Bolin 021-51666836

Yang Le 021-51595898

Li Yisha 021-51666730

Huang Chencong 021-51595860