SMM Analysis: Manganese Sulfate Prices Set to Rise in H2 on Seasonal Demand, Gains Capped by Oversupply

The high-purity manganese sulfate market staged a segmented performance in the first half of 2026, rallying in Q1 before slipping into corrective volatility in Q2. Q1 prices were buoyed by cost advantages and export policies, while Q2 came under pressure amid slack seasonal demand and expanded supply. Nevertheless, prices avoided a steep decline thanks to persistently high upstream raw material prices and the cushion of long-term orders, only fluctuating within a narrow band.

1. Q1: Dual Boosts from Costs and Policies Lift Spot Prices Steadily

Manganese sulfate maintained a solid upward trend with clear bullish drivers in Q1. On the cost side, sulfuric acid lingered at elevated levels. As manganese sulfate production consumes large volumes of sulfuric acid, the raw material hike substantially lifted smelting costs across the sector, making producers reluctant to cut prices for sales. Policy-wise, the rollout of export tax rebates for precursor products fueled optimistic expectations for overseas orders. Ternary and manganese-based precursor manufacturers ramped up raw material purchases, driving a surge in market inquiries and spot transactions. Improved supply-demand fundamentals jointly pushed manganese sulfate spot prices higher throughout the quarter.

2. Q2: Weak Seasonal Fundamentals Trigger Mild Price Corrections

Market dynamics shifted completely in Q2 as the industry entered the traditional off-season. Downstream battery and precursor manufacturers scaled back production, slowing raw material procurement and cooling spot trading activity.

Meanwhile, supply faced mounting pressure. Robust prices in Q1 prompted numerous manganese salt producers to restart idle production lines, flooding the market with ample circulating supply. The industry mitigated output via concentrated equipment maintenance, yet most overhauled facilities resumed operation in June, pushing operating rates slightly higher and reviving supply headwinds.

In terms of supply mix, crystalline manganese sulfate accounts for 93% of market circulation, while by-product manganese sulfate solution from precursor manufacturing only takes up 7%. The by-product material is limited in volume and unstable in purity and impurity indicators, making it incapable of large-scale substitution for mainstream crystalline products to ease market oversupply.

Though weakened supply-demand balance dragged prices down moderately, core raw materials including manganese ore and sulfuric acid remained pricey, and annual long-term contracts secured steady rigid demand. Producers had little incentive to offload goods with deep discounts, leading to only minor price adjustments instead of a sharp slump, with firm support at the price floor.

3. H2 2026 Outlook: Seasonal Demand to Pick Up, Yet Upside Remains Limited

Judging from supply-demand balance, seasonal cycles and raw material costs, manganese sulfate is poised for periodic upward momentum in H2 2026, while multiple constraints cap overall price gains.

Two rounds of seasonal demand catalysts are on the horizon. Q3 ushers in the traditional stocking season for the battery industrial chain. Continuous capacity expansion of medium-nickel high-voltage precursors generates sustained rigid demand growth, as this technical route consumes far more high-purity manganese sulfate. Improved buying sentiment will deliver periodic price strength. In Q4, aligned with battery export order cycles, downstream enterprises will advance stocking and sign bulk long-term agreements, creating a second wave of demand surge.

Even with two successive seasonal demand booms, powerful rallies are unlikely for three reasons. First, abundant newly added and restarted capacities keep the market in persistent oversupply, making tight supply-demand balance a remote scenario and suppressing price gains over the long run. Second, sulfuric acid, the core cost input, is widely forecast to dip moderately in the latter half of the year, gradually weakening cost support for finished manganese sulfate. Third, annual long-term contracts dominate market trading. Downstream buyers adopt conservative procurement strategies, purchasing only as needed and keeping raw material inventories low, with no speculative large-scale stockpiling.

Overall, seasonal demand will offer upward support for manganese sulfate prices in H2, yet bearish factors will cap gains. Sustained one-sided sharp rallies are unlikely, and prices will keep fluctuating within a fixed range.