[SMM Steel] Weak off-season demand, Thai wire rod prices still have room to decline

[Sheets & Plates] Today, the export prices of HRC and other sheets & plates remained stable day-over-day, with HRC transaction prices ranging from $489-497/mt. Market inquiry performance was moderate today, eased slightly compared to yesterday. The price spread advantage of semi-finished products weakened, and some traders also began to reduce their attention to related varieties.

This week, the HRC social inventory at 86 warehouses nationwide (large sample) tracked by SMM stood at 4.3425 million mt, down 33,200 mt WoW, or down 0.76% WoW, and up 45.74% YoY on a lunar calendar basis. By region, the northeast China market saw a relatively large destocking, the central China market experienced a slight accumulation, and the south China, east China, and north China markets underwent narrow destocking.

The most-traded HRC futures contract closed at 3298 today, up 0.12% for the day. Spot side, sheets & plates prices mostly held steady, with overall transactions pulling back slightly from the previous trading day, and end-user wait-and-see sentiment was relatively strong. SMM's weekly HRC supply-demand balance data was released today: affected by maintenance at some steel mills, HRC production fell WoW this week. Inventory side, SMM's statistics showed social inventory of HRC at 86 warehouses nationwide (large sample) at 4.3425 million mt, down 33,200 mt WoW (-0.76%), and up 45.74% lunar YoY. By region, the Northeast market saw a larger destocking, Central China market accumulated slightly, and South China, East China, and North China markets moved sideways in destocking. This week, inventory edged lower. Inventory is expected to enter an accumulation phase from next week, with supply-demand imbalance gradually intensifying. Overall, in the short term, sheets & plates prices consolidated near the bottom, with the most-traded HRC contract watched at 3270-3330. Watch factors such as macro meeting hype and the intensity of steel mill production cuts in mid-to-late month. HRC price fluctuation range is expected to widen in mid-to-late this month.