Aluminum Alloy Futures Under Pressure Pull Back, Spot Market Wait-and-See Sentiment Intensifies [ADC12 Price Daily Review]

Futures: Today, the most-traded aluminum alloy futures contract opened at 22,895 yuan/mt, rose to an intraday high of 22,950 yuan/mt before coming under persistent pressure and weakening, touched an intraday low of 22,775 yuan/mt, and closed the morning session at 22,860 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt or 0.15% from the previous settlement. The intraday profile ran below the average price line throughout the session; after hitting the day’s low during the afternoon, it saw small fluctuations and attempted to repair, with the 4-hour chart forming a slightly lower bearish candlestick. The DKX bullish/bearish lines remained in a bullish configuration, and the RSI stayed within the 66.62-77.68 range without entering overbought territory. The futures struggled to rebound and consolidated on a subdued note.

Spot: Today, ADC12 market offers were largely stable overall, with slightly lower prices in some areas, while the wait-and-see mood in the market strengthened further. Aluminum and cast aluminum alloy prices pulled back slightly today; some enterprises did not rush to follow the decline and instead waited for the market to show clearer direction, indicating that if the futures continued to weaken, catch‑up price cuts could follow. At the same time, orders have softened since July, providing insufficient transaction support and putting some pressure on prices. Moreover, incoming ADC12 cargoes have increased recently, easing the earlier‑period expectation of tight domestic supply and weighing on confidence to hold prices firm. Nevertheless, with aluminum scrap costs still demonstrating some resilience, most enterprises currently prefer to stay on the sidelines and hold prices steady, keeping ADC12 prices moving sideways in a narrow range in the near term.