Geopolitical Conflict Continues to Simmer, Copper Prices Extend Consolidation on a Subdued Note [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

Published: Jul 9, 2026 09:09

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SMM, July 9: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,206/mt, with the price center dipping to $13,146/mt in early trading before drifting higher, touching a high of $13,270/mt near the close, and finally settling at $13,255/mt, down 0.6%. Trading volume was 24,000 lots, and open interest was 246,000 lots, a decrease of 972 lots from the previous trading day, as bulls reduced positions. The most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 101,890 yuan/mt overnight, with the price center dipping to 101,640 yuan/mt, then moved sideways before trending higher, hitting a high of 102,230 yuan/mt near the close, and finally settling at 102,130 yuan/mt, down 0.7%. Trading volume was 41,100 lots, and open interest was 152,000 lots, an increase of 1,954 lots from the previous trading day, as bears added positions. On the macro front, the US again attacked Iran, and Trump said the US-Iran temporary ceasefire agreement ended, escalating the Middle East conflict and pushing up oil prices, heightening market concerns about inflation. Meanwhile, US Fed meeting minutes showed that officials were clearly divided on the interest rate direction, with possibilities of both rate hikes and cuts. On the fundamentals front, supply side, low-priced supply was tight, suppliers held prices firm, and spot liquidity remained tight; demand side, downstream players, worried about typhoon logistics disruptions, moderately stockpiled in advance, providing temporary support to demand. Overall, copper prices today are expected to consolidate on a subdued note.

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