Cell Production Schedule Fell More than Expected, Module Inventory Edged Down [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Briefing]

SMM, July 9:

solar cell

price

Transaction ranges for all Topcon sizes remained stable, with 183N and 210R operating steadily at 0.265-0.27 Yuan/W. The momentum for sustained low-price shipments in the market has significantly weakened. Combined with some producers releasing production cut plans, the willingness of enterprises to actively sell at low prices has narrowed, and the futures market has entered a phase of weak stabilization in the short term. However, end-use demand has not shown substantial improvement, and downstream procurement remains mainly wait-and-see, with the market still allowing negotiation for small-volume low-price actual orders. The supply-demand pressure on the industry has not been fully resolved.

production

Many producers have already finalised their July production cut plans. The specific extent of reduced operating rates will need further confirmation upon implementation. Affected by the offsetting impact of increased supporting capacity from integrated enterprises, the industry's overall expected production schedule for July still remains higher than June levels.

inventory

This week, industry inventory only pulled back slightly, with the overall inventory base still at a high level. The supply-demand mismatch issue has not substantially improved, and overall inventory pressure on the industry remains significant.

module

price

 This week, China's module prices continued to decline, presenting a situation of falling prices and rising volumes. However, this was primarily due to the increased occurrence of low-price discount offers for domestic products with power around 620W to seize orders. High-efficiency products have remained largely stable, leading to price divergence in the market. On the centralized side, recent projects have started to increase, becoming a major source of order competition for module enterprises in Q3. Domestic module prices are expected to maintain a downward trend going forward. Currently, distributed Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.7275 Yuan/W, 0.731 Yuan/W, and 0.7355 Yuan/W respectively, while centralized Topcon 182/183 and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.715 Yuan/W and 0.733 Yuan/W respectively.

production

Recently, the operating rates of domestic module factories remained largely stable WoW, with producers mainly producing based on demand.

inventory

This week, domestic module inventory continued to decline. Domestic low-price purchasing began to emerge appropriately, and project deliveries also drove module inventory levels down.

PV film

price:

EVA/POE PV-grade materials:

The spot price of PV-grade EVA resin is currently 9,500-9,600 yuan/mt, with the market remaining stable. This week, leading petrochemical plants' weekly settlement prices for PV-grade EVA held steady. Recently, the renewed escalation of US-Iran tensions has pushed up oil prices. However, fluctuations in upstream crude oil take time to transmit to raw materials like ethylene and vinyl acetate, and in the short term, this has not significantly boosted EVA resin prices. If the conflict continues to intensify, it may once again drive up the production cost of EVA resin.

PV Film:

Currently, the price of 420g transparent EVA film is 5.04-5.1 yuan/m², and the price of 380g EPE film is 5.13-5.19 yuan/m². At present, top-tier players mainly adopt a monthly pricing mechanism for long-term contracts; small and medium-sized producers mostly trade on a deal-by-deal basis. Going forward, we can continue to monitor their actual transaction and pricing situations.

Production

This week, a petrochemical unit switched to non-PV material, and PV-grade EVA production edged down. Film producers plan to increase their July production schedules by about 6%-7% MoM from June, as downstream demand recovers mildly.

Inventory

Currently, PV-grade EVA inventory is at a reasonable level; film producers maintain just-in-time purchasing, with no signal of centralized restocking released.

PV Glass:

Price

3.2mm single-layer coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass is 15-16 yuan/m², and glass prices remain stable.

3.2mm double-layer coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass is 16-17 yuan/m², and glass prices remain stable.

2mm single-layer coating: The quoted price for 2mm single-layer coated PV glass is 8.5-9.5 yuan/m². This week, glass prices were temporarily stable, with producers' benchmark prices holding above 8.5 yuan/m². The pace of production cuts has accelerated somewhat, and module producers have started purchasing. Prices are expected to remain firm going forward.

2mm double-layer coating: The quoted price for 2mm double-layer coated PV glass is 9.5-10.5 yuan/m², and glass prices remain stable.

Production

This week, a 1,000 mt/day furnace in Jiangxi underwent cold repair, and the pace of production cuts in China accelerated slightly from the previous period.

Inventory

Recently, days of inventory edged down slightly, and module producers began moderate purchasing at the beginning of the month.