Macro Fluctuations Keep Tin Prices Consolidating at Highs, Spot Market Trading Sluggish [SMM Tin Futures Brief]

Tin daily commentary on July 8, 2026

Tin markets in and outside China overall showed a consolidation pattern at highs. The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened at 411,300 yuan/mt and closed at 411,580 yuan/mt in the afternoon, up 0.55%. Throughout the session, futures prices continued the recent pattern of surging at the open, then consolidating in the subsequent period with narrowing gains. On the LME side, the three-month tin contract was currently at $53,110/mt, posting a gain of 0.21%.

Macro front:

(1) The State Administration of Foreign Exchange released end-June foreign exchange reserve data on July 8. China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3,416.3 billion, a MoM decrease of $26 billion, down 0.75%; gold reserves were 75.44 million ounces, up 480,000 ounces MoM, marking the 20th consecutive month of increase.

(2) US Central Command stated that its forces have begun a series of powerful strikes against Iran in response to Iran's targeting and attacks on commercial shipping operated by civilian crews in international waterways.

In the spot market, overall trading feedback was weak today. With futures prices consolidating at highs above 410,000 yuan/mt, downstream and end-user manufacturing enterprises showed little willingness to actively fix prices in the market, placing only a small number of low-price orders. Suppliers were moderately active in selling today, mostly quoting prices in line with the market. Spot premium quotes for mainstream brands were concentrated in the range of 800–1,200 yuan/mt.

On the whole, the tin market is currently in a phase of consolidation at highs. Although the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the US strikes have to some extent boosted energy prices such as crude oil, the market has shown a degree of dullness and desensitization to the frequent recurrence of geopolitical factors. From a funding perspective, the recent pullback in the US dollar index has triggered a re-rating of premiums in some base metal sectors. However, the tin market, given its relatively small size compared with some major metal sectors, has maintained market attention, allowing it to sustain strong downside resilience amid sector consolidation. On the fundamental side, there has been no significant incremental release from overseas supply, and downstream restocking during the previous price pullback led to a rapid drawdown of inventory, providing fairly solid floor support for futures prices. It is expected that the most-traded SHFE tin contract will continue to experience wild swings within a range in the near term.