SMM July 8 News:
Metals Market:
As of the midday close, domestic base metals broadly rose. SHFE copper and SHFE zinc edged up, SHFE aluminum rose 0.74%. SHFE lead rose 1.57%. SHFE tin rose 0.49%. SHFE nickel fell 0.53%.
Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures rose 0.7%, and the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.52%. Lithium carbonate most-traded contract fell 0.93%. Silicon metal most-traded contract edged up. Polysilicon most-traded futures rose 1.43%.
Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore rose 0.74%, rebar rose 0.65%, HRC rose 0.27. Stainless steel fell 1.86%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal most-traded contract rose 0.82%, coke most-traded contract rose 0.28%.
Overseas base metals market: As of 11:42, LME metals were nearly all rising. LME copper rose 0.34%, LME aluminum rose 0.62%, LME lead rose 0.85%. LME zinc rose 0.1%, LME tin was at parity at $53,000/mt. LME nickel rose 0.18%.
Precious metals: As of 11:42, COMEX gold fell 0.43%, COMEX silver fell 0.44%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 0.18%; most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.96%.
Sherilyn Chew, multi-asset strategist at DBS Group Research, stated that gold's medium-term outlook remains slightly more constructive. On one hand, the launch of Hong Kong's gold clearing infrastructure pilot reinforced the broader theme of sustained Asian interest in gold and should help deepen market accessibility across the region over time. On the other hand, amid discussions on de-dollarization, PBOC will continue to increase gold holdings, highlighting sustained official sector demand. Both factors underpin the medium-term demand floor for gold. (Jin10 Data APP)
Furthermore, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.94%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.23%.
As of the midday close, the most-traded European container transportation futures rose 3.34% to 2,540 points.
As of July 8, 11:42, some selected futures midday quotes:
Spot and Fundamentals
Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was reported at 90 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was reported at a premium of 20 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper was reported at a discount of 50 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,905 yuan/mt, down 240 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of SX-EW copper was 102,800 yuan/mt, down 240 yuan/mt. Spot Market: Inventory in Guangdong declined for a fifth straight day, mainly due to persistently low arrivals...
Macro Front
China:
[PBOC reverse repo operations resulted in a net withdrawal of CNY85 billion on the day] The PBOC conducted CNY15 billion of 7-day reverse repo operations today. With CNY100 billion of 7-day reverse repos maturing today, the net withdrawal for the day was CNY85 billion. (Jinshi Data App)
[Shanghai: Strengthen key functional areas such as the Three Islands of Chongming, the Upper Reaches of the Huangpu River, the North Bank of Hangzhou Bay, and Northern Shanghai] The Shanghai Municipal People's Government issued the "Shanghai 15th Five-Year Plan for Advancing Comprehensive Rural Revitalization". The plan proposes that by 2030, Shanghai will achieve substantial new results in comprehensive rural revitalization, accelerate agricultural modernization, and speed up the provision of modern living conditions in rural areas. Deep urban-rural integration will reach a new level, laying a solid foundation for comprehensive rural revitalization. Leveraging rural strengths in ensuring the supply of key agricultural products, ecological conservation, cultural heritage, and spatial capacity, Shanghai will adopt tailored approaches based on local conditions, create an urban-rural integration development belt around the metropolitan area, strengthen key functional areas such as the Three Islands of Chongming, the Upper Reaches of the Huangpu River, the North Bank of Hangzhou Bay, and Northern Shanghai, and build core rural revitalization nodes in conjunction with major strategic areas like the "Five New Towns" and the Yangtze River Delta Ecological Green Integrated Development Demonstration Zone. This will form a strategic layout for comprehensive rural revitalization characterized by "one belt, four zones, and multiple nodes".
US Dollar:
As of 11:42, the US dollar index was flat at 101.09. According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 73.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 26.7%. For September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 32.4%, cumulative 25bp hike 52.7%, and cumulative 50bp hike 14.9%. Fed's Williams: Given the uncertainty, explicit forward guidance is not appropriate. Energy prices and inflation may decline over the coming months.
Swiss private bank Julius Baer: The Fed is unlikely to raise rates and the US dollar may weaken. (Jinshi Data App)
Other data:
[Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised rates by 25bp as expected, hinting at possible further tightening] The RBNZ Monetary Policy Committee unanimously agreed today to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.50%. As the Strait of Hormuz partially reopened, global oil prices fell sharply. Prices of other petrochemical products also pulled back. As a result, near-term inflationary pressures eased. However, despite the decline in energy prices, the impact of the energy shock will persist for some time, and the outlook for medium-term inflation pressures remains uncertain. The current monetary policy stance aims to bring inflation back to target while avoiding unnecessary economic instability. New Zealand's economy was on a recovery track before the Middle East conflict, but it was dragged down by the oil price shock, and economic momentum weakened in the June quarter. The outlook for medium-term inflation pressures depends on the extent to which recent cost increases are passed through to higher prices. As inflation remains above target and economic activity is expected to strengthen, further reduction in monetary policy stimulus may be needed to bring inflation back to the 2% target midpoint. Future interest rate decisions will depend on newly released economic data, price-setting behaviour, and the impact of the strength of economic activity on medium-term inflation pressures. (Jin10 Data APP)
RBA Assistant Governor Hunter said on Wednesday that the recent oil price shock has led to a decline in Australian consumer and business confidence, but so far there have been no signs of a significant slowdown in economic activity. In a speech on supply shocks, Hunter said it is not always correct to simply ignore supply shocks; if inflation expectations start to rise, a period of low inflation and high unemployment may be necessary. "Although supply shocks present difficult policy trade-offs, this does not diminish the importance of maintaining low and stable inflation," Hunter said. "The Board will continue to take the necessary actions to ensure inflation returns to target and the labour market is at a sustainable full employment level." (Jin10 Data APP)
On the data front:
Today will see the release of US May wholesale sales month-on-month data, among others. Also in focus: the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its interest rate decision and RBNZ Governor Breman will hold a monetary policy press conference.
On the crude oil front:
As of 11:42, both crude oil benchmarks rose, with WTI up 2.54% and Brent up 2.58%. A new round of US airstrikes on Iran sharply cooled market risk appetite, reigniting the Strait of Hormuz risk premium to support oil prices. (Wallstreetcn)
On July 8, according to CCTV News, the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced that the US had revoked a general license authorizing the sale of Iranian oil, and related wind-down transactions would be permitted until 12:00 a.m. Eastern Time on July 17.
Spot market at a glance:
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
►
![Futures Rally Continues, Spot Aluminum Remains Under Pressure [SMM South China Aluminum Spot Daily Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/bHIPd20251217171651.jpg)
![Guangdong Zinc: Prices Consolidate at Highs, Spot Premiums Continue to Decline [SMM Midday Review]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/nlmjY20251217171755.jpg)
