Crude Oil Rises, Most Metals Rise, SHFE Lead and Polysilicon Up over 1%, Stainless Steel Down Nearly 2% [SMM Midday Review]

SMM July 8 News:

Metals Market:

As of the midday close, domestic base metals broadly rose. SHFE copper and SHFE zinc edged up, SHFE aluminum rose 0.74%. SHFE lead rose 1.57%. SHFE tin rose 0.49%. SHFE nickel fell 0.53%.

Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures rose 0.7%, and the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.52%. Lithium carbonate most-traded contract fell 0.93%. Silicon metal most-traded contract edged up. Polysilicon most-traded futures rose 1.43%.

Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore rose 0.74%, rebar rose 0.65%, HRC rose 0.27. Stainless steel fell 1.86%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal most-traded contract rose 0.82%, coke most-traded contract rose 0.28%.

Overseas base metals market: As of 11:42, LME metals were nearly all rising. LME copper rose 0.34%, LME aluminum rose 0.62%, LME lead rose 0.85%. LME zinc rose 0.1%, LME tin was at parity at $53,000/mt. LME nickel rose 0.18%.

Precious metals: As of 11:42, COMEX gold fell 0.43%, COMEX silver fell 0.44%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 0.18%; most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.96%.

Sherilyn Chew, multi-asset strategist at DBS Group Research, stated that gold's medium-term outlook remains slightly more constructive. On one hand, the launch of Hong Kong's gold clearing infrastructure pilot reinforced the broader theme of sustained Asian interest in gold and should help deepen market accessibility across the region over time. On the other hand, amid discussions on de-dollarization, PBOC will continue to increase gold holdings, highlighting sustained official sector demand. Both factors underpin the medium-term demand floor for gold. (Jin10 Data APP)

Furthermore, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.94%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.23%.

As of the midday close, the most-traded European container transportation futures rose 3.34% to 2,540 points.

As of July 8, 11:42, some selected futures midday quotes:

Spot and Fundamentals

Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was reported at 90 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was reported at a premium of 20 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper was reported at a discount of 50 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,905 yuan/mt, down 240 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of SX-EW copper was 102,800 yuan/mt, down 240 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong's inventory has fallen for five consecutive days, with still low arrivals as the main reason...

Macro front

On the domestic side:

[PBOC's reverse repo operation results in a net withdrawal of 85 billion yuan on the day] The PBOC conducted 15 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, and with 100 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing today, a net withdrawal of 85 billion yuan was achieved on the day. (Jin10 Data App)

[Shanghai: Strengthen key functional areas such as Chongming Three Islands, the upper reaches of Huangpu River, the north shore of Hangzhou Bay, and northern Shanghai] The Shanghai Municipal People's Government issued the "Shanghai 15th Five-Year Plan for Comprehensively Promoting Rural Revitalization." It proposes that by 2030, Shanghai will achieve substantial new results in comprehensively promoting rural revitalization, accelerate agricultural modernization, speed up the improvement of rural living conditions, and elevate deeply integrated urban-rural development to a new level, laying a solid foundation for the comprehensive revitalization of rural areas. Leveraging the advantages of rural areas in ensuring the supply of key agricultural products, ecological conservation, cultural heritage, and spatial capacity, Shanghai will adopt measures tailored to local conditions and categorized policies to build an urban-rural integrated development belt around the metropolitan area. It will strengthen key functional areas such as Chongming Three Islands, the upper reaches of Huangpu River, the north shore of Hangzhou Bay, and northern Shanghai, and combine major strategic areas like the "Five New Cities" and the Yangtze River Delta Eco-Green Integrated Development Demonstration Zone to create core nodes for rural revitalization, forming a strategic layout of "one belt, four areas, multiple nodes" for comprehensive rural revitalization.

On the dollar side:

As of 11:42, the US dollar index was flat at 101.09. According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 73.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 26.7%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through September is 32.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 52.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50bp hike is 14.9%. Fed's Williams: Given the uncertainty, it is not appropriate to provide clear forward guidance. Energy prices and inflation are likely to decline in the coming months.

Swiss private bank Julius Baer: It is expected that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates, and the US dollar may weaken. (Jin10 Data App)

Other data:

[RBNZ hikes rates by 25bp as expected, hinting that further tightening may continue] The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand unanimously agreed today to raise the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.50%. As the Strait of Hormuz partially reopened, global oil prices fell sharply. Prices of other petrochemical products also pulled back. As a result, short-term inflationary pressures eased somewhat. However, despite the decline in energy prices, the impact of the energy shock will persist for some time, and the outlook for medium-term inflation pressures remains uncertain. The current monetary policy stance aims to bring inflation back to target while avoiding unnecessary economic instability. The New Zealand economy was on a recovery track before the Middle East conflict, but momentum weakened somewhat in the June quarter, dragged down by the oil price shock. The outlook for medium-term inflation pressures depends on the extent to which recent cost increases are passed through to higher prices. With inflation still above target and economic activity expected to strengthen, further reduction in monetary policy stimulus may be needed to return inflation to the midpoint of the 2% target. Future interest rate decisions will depend on the impact of newly released economic data, price-setting behavior, and the strength of economic activity on medium-term inflation pressures. (Jin10 Data APP)

RBA Assistant Governor Hunter said on Wednesday that the recent oil price shock has led to a decline in consumer and business confidence in Australia, but so far there is no sign of a pronounced slowdown in economic activity. In a speech on supply shocks, Hunter said it is not always right to simply ignore supply shocks; if inflation expectations start to rise, a period of low inflation and high unemployment may be needed. "While supply shocks pose difficult policy trade-offs, this does not diminish the importance of maintaining low and stable inflation," Hunter said. "The Board will continue to take the actions necessary to ensure inflation returns to target and the labour market is at sustainable full employment." (Jin10 Data APP)

In terms of data:

The US Wholesale Sales MoM for May and other data will be released today. Additionally, attention should be paid to: the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announcing its interest rate decision; and RBNZ Governor Bremner holding a monetary policy press conference.

In crude oil:

As of 11:42, both benchmark oil prices rose, with WTI up 2.54% and Brent up 2.58%. The US launched a new round of airstrikes against Iran, causing a sharp cooling in market risk appetite, and the resurgent Hormuz risk premium supported oil prices. (Wall Street CN)

On July 8, according to CCTV News, the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced that the US has revoked a general license that authorized the sale of Iranian oil, with related wind-down transactions allowed to continue until 12:00 a.m. Eastern Time on July 17.

Spot market roundup:

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