Silicone Prices See Wait-and-See Sentiment, PV Upstream Prices Under Pressure [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Briefing]

SMM July 8 News:

Silicon Coal

Price:

This week, the silicon coal market price remained stable. Specifically, silicon granular coal in Gansu was 1,140 yuan/mt, silicon mixed coal was 1,060 yuan/mt; in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia, silicon granular coal was 1,340 yuan/mt; in Xinjiang, non-caking silicon coal was 855 yuan/mt; and caking silicon coal was 1,400 yuan/mt.

Supply:

Currently, the silicon coal market supply shows a clear differentiation pattern: driven by the production resumptions of silicon metal enterprises in the southwest during the rainy season, some coal washing plants that produce based on sales have seen their operating rates increase slightly, with production schedules adjusted in sync with downstream just-in-time procurement; meanwhile, plants that previously experienced slower shipments and higher inventory accumulation are now mainly focusing on destocking.

Demand:

According to the silicon metal production schedule data for July, silicon metal output showed an upswing on a MoM basis, thus just-in-time procurement of silicon coal is expected to see a slight recovery as well.

Silicon Metal

Price:

Yesterday, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was around 9,000 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was around 9,200 yuan/mt, both stable compared to the previous day. The most-traded contract in the futures market consolidated in a stalemate below 8,400 yuan/mt. Recently, driven by supply-demand fundamentals, prices have encountered resistance, with prices stagnant and consolidating on a subdued note.

Output:

In July, due to production resumptions or output release by some silicon enterprises in Yunnan and Sichuan, and individual enterprises in Inner Mongolia, the overall silicon metal output continued to increase MoM from June.

Inventory:

Social Inventory:

SMM statistics show that as of July 2, social inventory of silicon metal in major regions totaled 553,000 mt, down 3,000 mt WoW (excluding Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, etc.).

Price

DMC: The most-traded transaction price was 13,000-13,500 yuan/mt, with an average price around 13,250 yuan/mt. Currently, the silicone market is in a gaming stalemate; mid- and downstream clients still hold bearish sentiment, purchasing enthusiasm is low, with only small-order just-in-time procurement conducted in batches, while most remain on the sidelines.

D4: Yesterday's quotes were 13,600-14,300 yuan/mt, averaging around 13,950 yuan/mt.

107 silicone rubber: Yesterday's quotes were 13,500-13,800 yuan/mt, averaging around 13,650 yuan/mt.

Raw rubber: Yesterday's quotes were 14,500-14,800 yuan/mt, averaging around 14,650 yuan/mt.

Silicone oil: Yesterday's quotes were 15,500-16,200 yuan/mt, averaging around 15,850 yuan/mt.

Output:

Currently, on the supply side of silicone, some producers still have maintenance shutdown plans; coupled with units that were shut down for maintenance last month and remain off-line, the overall supply remains on a contraction trend. According to SMM data, DMC production fell about 1.17% WoW last week, with an overall operating rate around 61%.

Inventory:

Amid the current stalemate in the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream, mid- and downstream enterprises remain cautious in procurement, leading to persistent inventory pressure for some producers.

Polysilicon

Price:

N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 31-33.2 yuan/kg, with limited order signing in the market. Downstream purchase willingness was limited, with a generally bearish sentiment prevailing. Some polysilicon manufacturers had previously initiated price cuts. Additionally, the market was also focusing on the outcomes of today's meeting.

Production

China's production continued to rise in July, mainly driven by capacity ramp-ups in regions such as Sichuan and Yunnan.

Inventory:

Inventory began to build up, with limited order signing and limited orders being executed. However, inventories of some top-tier players dropped to around 100,000 mt after shipments.

Wafer

Price

In the market, 18X wafer prices were at 0.85-0.88 yuan/piece, 210RN wafer prices at 0.96-0.98 yuan/piece, and 210N wafer prices at 1.16-1.18 yuan/piece. Recently, cell enterprises have been pushing for lower wafer prices, putting near-term wafer prices under pressure.

Production

According to the latest SMM survey feedback, a top-tier player adjusted its production cut plan, with actual output remaining flat MoM from June. Meanwhile, integrated enterprises increased production, and adjustments were observed in the total volume and distribution ratio of external toll processing. Overall, production in July decreased by about 2% MoM from June.

Inventory

Wafer enterprises showed a divergent trend in inventory buildup, with inventories of top-tier players exceeding reasonable levels. Demand for bonded zone inventory orders for shipments to India marginally weakened, while several African countries emerged as top export destinations.

High-purity Quartz Sand

Price

Currently, China's inner-layer sand prices are at 40,000-45,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand prices at 20,000-24,000 yuan/mt, outer-layer sand prices at 16,000-18,000 yuan/mt, and imported high-purity quartz sand prices at 50,000-55,000 yuan/mt. Prices of 33-inch quartz crucibles are 6,000-6,100 yuan/piece, and 36-inch quartz crucibles at 6,300-6,600 yuan/piece. The price spread between different grades of 36-inch crucibles has widened, mainly because differences in the proportion of inner-layer sand used lead to varying crystal pulling durations. Recently, some enterprises have started to pay attention to procurement.

Production

Recently, semiconductor demand has improved, and demand for PV-grade crucible sand has shifted somewhat. Driven by increased wafer production schedules in China, multiple crucible manufacturers have reported improving order demand. Domestic high-purity quartz sand enterprises are aligning production plans with wafer demand, and demand for high-purity quartz sand for PV applications in semiconductors has recently started to gain momentum and increase.

Inventory

In June, imported sand inventory continued to increase. In Q2 2026, crucible enterprises made reasonable purchases based on wafer planned production, and the overall quartz sand inventory level continued to rise.