SMM, July 8:
Metals Market:
Overnight, base metals on the domestic market generally rose. SHFE copper rose 0.14%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.59%, SHFE lead rose 0.88%, SHFE zinc edged lower, and SHFE tin rose 0.51%. SHFE nickel fell 0.16%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.18%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures contract rose 0.85%.
Overnight, ferrous metals all fell. Stainless steel fell 0.27%, iron ore fell 0.34%, rebar fell 0.2%, and hot-rolled coil fell 0.21%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.2%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.74%.
Overnight on the overseas market, LME base metals generally fell. LME copper fell 0.57%, LME aluminum rose 0.84%, LME lead rose 0.35%, LME zinc fell 0.22%, LME tin fell 0.19%, and LME nickel fell 1.36%.
Overnight in precious metals: COMEX gold fell 1.22%, COMEX silver fell 3.09%. The most-traded SHFE gold futures contract rose 0.08% overnight, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures contract fell 0.7%.
As of 7:13 am on July 8, overnight closing prices:
Macro front
China:
[State Council: Approves the '15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Tourism Power'] The State Council issued a reply regarding the '15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Tourism Power' and approved the plan in principle. The reply stated that the plan's implementation should fully, accurately and comprehensively implement the new development philosophy, adhere to tourism serving the people, take promoting high-quality development as the theme, advance deep integration of culture and tourism as the main line, coordinate between government and market, supply and demand, protection and development, domestic and international, development and security, strive to improve the modern tourism system, optimize the spatial layout of tourism, cultivate new drivers for tourism development, enrich tourism supply, unleash consumption potential, improve service quality, promote high-efficiency governance, deepen exchanges and cooperation in the tourism sector, accelerate the building of a tourism power, so that the tourism industry can better serve a better life, promote economic development, build a spiritual home, showcase China's image, and enhance mutual learning among civilizations.
[China's June forex reserves down 0.75% MoM; central bank's gold reserves increase for 20th consecutive month] Data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) showed that by the end of June 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3,416.3 billion, down $26 billion or 0.75% from the end of May. In June 2026, affected by factors such as macroeconomic data of major economies, monetary policies of major central banks and expectations, the US dollar index rose, and global financial asset prices showed mixed performance. The combined effects of exchange rate translation and asset price changes led to a decline in foreign exchange reserves during the month. China's economy has been generally stable and moving toward new and improved development, which helps keep the scale of foreign exchange reserves basically stable. In addition, PBOC data showed that China's gold reserves at end-June stood at 75.44 million ounces (approx. 2,346.446 mt), a MoM increase of 480,000 ounces (approx. 14.93 mt). At end-May, gold reserves were 74.96 million ounces (approx. 2,331.52 mt). This marks the 20th consecutive month of gold purchases.
US Dollar:
Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.22% to 101.09. Soaring oil prices boosted inflation expectations. Additionally, according to the CME FedWatch Tool: the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 73.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 26.7%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged by September is 32.4%, of a cumulative 25bp hike is 52.7%, and of a cumulative 50bp hike is 14.9%.
The US trade deficit in May hit the largest since March 2025 as exports fell and imports rose. Data released by the US Commerce Department on Tuesday showed that the goods and services trade deficit widened 42.2% MoM to $77.6 billion in May. Exports dropped 3.2% in May, dragged down by declines in non-monetary gold exports. Imports rose 3.3%. In the months before the deficit widened, oil and petroleum product exports, boosted by the Iran war, had been helping to offset the continued surge in capital goods imports related to the country's domestic data center construction. The report showed that oil exports continued to grow in May. Meanwhile, imports of computer accessories and semiconductors rose again, while imports of computer and telecom equipment retreated. Recent PMI surveys suggested that imports may also have been boosted by US enterprises stockpiling in advance to avoid war-related supply chain disruptions and price increases. The May trade data will help economists firm up their Q2 GDP estimates. (Jin10 Data App)
Macro:
Today, data including New Zealand's RBNZ interest rate decision for July 8 and US May wholesale sales MoM will be released. Additionally, watch for: the RBNZ's interest rate decision announcement; RBNZ Governor Bullman's monetary policy press conference.
Crude Oil:
Overnight, both oil futures surged, with US crude up 5.32% and Brent crude up 5.49%. The tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz triggered a chain reaction. The US Treasury Department announced the revocation of the Iran oil sales waiver, pushing oil prices higher. The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the US Treasury subsequently announced that, effective July 7, it revoked the Iran oil sales waiver previously issued under the framework of the US-Iran interim peace agreement. The waiver was originally valid until August 21. The statement said no new related transactions are allowed. (Wall Street Journal)
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook: forecasts 2026 WTI crude oil price at $76.26/bbl, previously $88.32/bbl; forecasts 2027 WTI crude oil price at $60.76/bbl, previously $74.39/bbl; forecasts 2026 Brent crude oil price at $81.91/bbl, previously $95.39/bbl; forecasts 2027 Brent crude oil price at $64.76/bbl, previously $79.39/bbl. (Jin10 Data App)
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