SMM Jul 6:
The SHFE aluminum 2608 contract opened at 22,850 yuan/mt, reached a high of 23,080 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 22,785 yuan/mt, and closed at 22,940 yuan/mt, up 105 yuan/mt or 0.46% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 146,200 lots and open interest was 246,000 lots, with a daily decline of 7,151 lots. Price settled above the MA5 (22,687) and MA10 (22,840.50), but remained below the MA20 (23,433.75), MA40 (23,982.50), and MA60 (24,287.67). Short-term momentum improved, but the medium- and long-term bearish pattern has not yet reversed. On the MACD, DIFF (-444.86) was below DEA (-410.16), and the histogram recorded -69.41, indicating persisting bearish momentum but narrowing significantly from earlier. Trading volume of 146,200 lots declined further from the previous session, and the daily open interest decline of 7,151 lots signals continued capital outflows. Today's uptick was more a reflection of technical recovery driven by short-covering.
SMM Commentary: The indirect technical talks between the US and Iran made progress, with both sides discussing fund repatriation and strait security, and consultations on the nuclear issue are about to begin. The geopolitical risk premium continued to shrink, while disputes over the management of the Strait of Hormuz persisted, leaving uncertainty over the strait’s resumption of navigation. The US Fed’s hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, putting pressure on non‑ferrous metals prices. Amid macro headwinds, aluminum prices fell in and outside China, with bearish factors dominating in the short term. Aluminum prices are expected to be in the doldrums going forward.
The alumina 2609 contract opened at 2,727 yuan/mt, hit a high of 2,727 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 2,694 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,701 yuan/mt, down 16 yuan/mt or 0.59% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 184,200 lots and open interest was 352,500 lots, with a daily increase of 18,337 lots. Prices remained below the MA5 (2,732), MA10 (2,776.60), MA20 (2,835.35), MA40 (2,812.43), and MA60 (2,815.27), with the moving averages in bearish alignment and the market continuing to show weakness. On the MACD, DIFF (-30.82) was below DEA (-11.56), and the histogram recorded -38.51, signaling continued bearish momentum. Trading volume of 184,200 lots pulled back slightly from the previous session, but the daily increase in open interest of 18,337 lots indicates additional capital entering at lower levels, with bears remaining aggressive.
SMM Commentary: According to SMM data, as of last Thursday, total domestic alumina inventory had edged down from the previous week. By inventory structure, raw material inventories at aluminum smelters continued to destock slightly, but given the recent sharp price fluctuations and divergent market outlooks, restocking appetite was weak, with end‑users largely on the sidelines. Alumina in-factory inventory decreased, mainly due to phased maintenance at some northern refineries, where production constraints led to priority use of in-factory stocks; this impact is expected to fade gradually after maintenance concludes next week. Port inventories continued to build, with ex‑China port arrivals staying high and import cargoes supplementing spot supply, adding pressure to the market. Overall, the oversupply picture remains unchanged, and before Guinea’s bauxite export quota policy is implemented, the market lacks clear bullish drivers. Next week, inventories are likely to shift from weak destocking to a slight buildup, with supply-demand staying ample and alumina prices expected to continue to be in the doldrums.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment, research, or decision‑making advice. Clients should make decisions prudently, and not substitute this for independent judgment. Any decision made by clients is unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.]
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