In July, tungsten prices along the industry chain continued in the doldrums. A large tungsten enterprise lowered its long-term contract purchase price for the first half of July, while the Ganzhou Tungsten Association simultaneously lowered its monthly average forecast prices for all tungsten products, with all categories falling MoM. Spot market prices also fell under pressure. According to SMM prices, wolframite concentrates (≥65%) have been on a weak downward trend since mid-to-late June. Looking back at the year's price trend, tungsten prices have swung wildly. A comparison of the two downward cycles shows that the correction from mid-June has a narrower overall decline than the first pullback from March to May. The traditional off-season effect is now prominent, with weak downstream demand and the need to digest raw material inventories continuing to weigh on tungsten prices. However, low-priced supply of high-grade ore is hard to find, which will provide some support.
Industry long-term contract prices and association monthly average forecast prices all lowered
A tungsten enterprise lowered its long-term contract price for the first half of July as follows:
According to Chongyi Zhangyuan Tungsten on July 6, its long-term contract purchase prices for the first half of July are: 1. 55% wolframite concentrates: 448,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), down 72,000 yuan/standard tonne from the previous round; 2. 55% scheelite concentrates: 447,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), down 72,000 yuan/standard tonne from the previous round; 3. APT (national standard grade 0): 660,000 yuan/mt, down 120,000 yuan/mt from the previous round.
The Ganzhou Tungsten Association released its forecast average prices for tungsten products for July 2026, with 55% wolframite concentrates at 448,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), down 57,000 yuan/mt from June; APT at 660,000 yuan/mt, down 100,000 yuan/mt from June; and medium-grain tungsten powder at 1,100 yuan/kg, down 200 yuan/kg from June.
Wolframite concentrates drop 13.93% in less than one month
According to SMM prices, wolframite concentrates (≥65%) were priced at 453,000-455,000 yuan/standard tonne on July 7, with an average of 454,000 yuan/standard tonne, down 3.61% from the previous trading day.
Looking at short-term trends, after the average price of wolframite concentrates rebounded to a previous high of 527,500 yuan/standard tonne in early-to-mid June, support weakened due to poor downstream demand and the ongoing digestion of raw material inventories built up through earlier concentrated stockpiling. Tungsten prices then began a broad correction from June 17. Compared with the average price of 527,500 yuan/standard tonne on June 16, the July 7 average of 454,000 yuan/standard tonne represents a drop of 73,500 yuan/standard tonne, or 13.93%, in less than one month.
Over a longer timeframe, the average price trend of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) this year has been turbulent. Supported by tight raw material supply at the start of the year, the concentrate price climbed from 453,500 yuan/standard tonne on January 5 to an all-time high of 1,050,500 yuan/standard tonne on March 13. At such high levels, market caution and fear of high prices grew, and with limited end-user demand acceptance, tungsten prices entered a broad downturn, falling to a year-to-date low of 400,500 yuan/standard tonne on May 25. After this deep correction, the market had a need for a technical rebound from oversold levels, and a concentrated release of periodic restocking demand drove a recovery from May 27, sending prices to 527,500 yuan/standard tonne on June 10.
Comparing the two complete downward cycles this year, the first pullback after the early-year surge had a wider price fluctuation range, while the current correction that began in mid-June has a narrower overall decline than the previous one. Looking at the key price periods, it is clear that wolframite concentrate prices have been marked by large swings and pronounced volatility this year.
Outlook
Looking ahead, in the short term, July is the traditional downstream consumption off-season, with weak purchase willingness from cemented carbide and mechanical processing enterprises and mediocre market demand. However, high-grade tungsten ore remains in tight circulation. Under the balance of bullish and bearish factors, tungsten prices are expected to move sideways, and attention should remain focused on the pace of downstream demand recovery.
In the medium and long term, domestic primary tungsten mining regulation continues to tighten, there is rigid demand support from cemented carbide, and net exports of tungsten products are growing steadily, so the tungsten supply-demand pattern is expected to remain in deficit for the full year. Insufficient mining quota carryover in Q3 points to expectations of tighter raw material supply, while the traditional September-October peak season may drive a recovery in restocking demand. Rigid demand continues to expand in military, high-end equipment, and new energy sectors, and the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets is also expected to keep boosting export orders. These multiple bullish factors provide strong support for the medium- and long-term tungsten price floor. However, caution is needed regarding the risk that rapid price rises squeeze downstream processing enterprise profits, which could force end-user production cuts and create negative feedback. Overall, the tungsten market is likely to experience a mild and orderly uptrend going forward.
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