Wafer Enterprise Inventory Shows Divergence, Solar Cell Industry Inventory Pulls Back Slightly WoW [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM July 7 News:

Wafer

Price: The market price for 18X wafers is 0.85-0.88 yuan/piece, for 210RN wafers 0.96-0.98 yuan/piece, and for 210N wafers 1.16-1.18 yuan/piece. Recently, the lower end of the 210R and 210 wafer price ranges may trend downward, but the overall magnitude is limited, and wafer prices remain relatively firm this round.

Production: According to the latest SMM survey, several top-tier players cut production in July, while some integrated producers ramped up, and the total volume and distribution ratio of outsourced toll processing adjusted. Overall, July production is expected to decrease about 5%-6% MoM from June.

Inventory: Wafer producers’ inventory buildup showed divergence—inventory at top-tier players has exceeded reasonable levels, demand for bonded zone inventory orders destined for India is weakening at the margin, and several African countries have moved into the forefront of exports.

Solar Cell

Price: After last week’s continued decline, full-size Topcon solar cell prices stabilized temporarily today, as the rebound on the cost side provided short-term support and producers’ willingness to proactively sell at low prices and offer discounts was reined in. This halt in the decline is merely a phase of stabilization—end-user procurement demand remains weak and orders have yet to pick up. Once cost support fades or actual demand stays sluggish, low-price transactions may reappear in the market.

Production: Overall expected July production schedules remain higher than June. Some specialized solar cell plants have started to cut production, but the scale of these cuts is not enough to offset the increase from integrated module producers’ associated output, so the overall supply delivery still maintains a MoM uptrend.

Inventory: Total industry inventory pulled back only slightly WoW this week, and the overall inventory base remains high. The core supply-demand mismatch has not been substantially alleviated, leaving the industry still in a period of inventory buildup under pressure.

PV Film

Price

PV-grade EVA: Currently, the spot price of PV-grade EVA resin is 9,500-9,600 yuan/mt, with a stable market tone. This week, top-tier petrochemical plants are not expected to plan major adjustments to their weekly settlement prices for PV-grade EVA, which may remain stable. Going forward, attention should be paid to the actual progress of plant switchovers to PV-grade material in July, which will influence the short-term EVA supply-demand pattern and the direction of resin price fluctuations.

PV Film: The current price for 420-g/m² transparent EVA film is 4.98-5.06 yuan/m², and for 380-g/m² EPE film is 5.07-5.15 yuan/m². Currently, mainstream long-term contracts in the industry adopt monthly pricing, and short-term long-term contract quotes from top-tier film producers are not expected to see major adjustments. The spot order market offers more flexibility, and actual transaction conditions for individually negotiated orders can be tracked going forward.

Production: Last weekend, a plant’s switch to PV-grade material was offset by another plant’s switch to non-PV-grade material, leading to a slight decrease in overall PV-grade EVA production. Film producers’ July production plans call for a MoM increase of about 6%-7% from June, and downstream demand is showing signs of a mild recovery.

Inventory: Currently, PV-grade EVA inventory is at a reasonable level; film manufacturers' purchasing pace is relatively cautious, procuring as needed, keeping overall industry inventory pressure under control.