LME copper bottoms out and edges up slightly; SHFE copper destocking supports a hold-up-well consolidation [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

SMM July 7 News: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,385/mt, dipped to $13,320/mt in early trading, then the price center drifted higher, touching a high of $13,422/mt near the end of the session, and finally settled at $13,411/mt, up 0.4%, with trading volume at 11,700 lots and open interest at 249,000 lots, a decrease of 579 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bear position reduction. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 102,630 yuan/mt, with the price center dipping to 102,610 yuan/mt at the start, then drifting higher throughout the session, reaching a high of 103,270 yuan/mt near the end, and finally closing at 103,090 yuan/mt, up 0.01%, with trading volume at 19,000 lots and open interest at 150,000 lots, a decrease of 1,235 lots from the previous trading day, also reflecting bear position reduction. On the macro front, Fed Chairman Warsh's earlier dovish remarks have boosted market expectations for interest rate cuts, providing support for copper prices at the bottom; however, the US copper cathode import tariff policy remains unresolved, with uncertainty continuing to fuel a wait-and-see sentiment in the market. Fundamentally, on the supply side, arrivals of both imported and domestic material remained low, keeping overall market supply tight; on the demand side, high copper prices continued to suppress downstream purchasing sentiment, with enterprises mainly making just-in-time procurement. Inventory side, as of Monday, July 6, SMM copper inventories in major domestic regions fell by 15,200 mt WoW from last Monday to 192,200 mt, with total inventory up 49,300 mt YoY from 142,900 mt, as destocking was seen across all regions. Overall, copper prices are expected to hold up well today.