Shrinking profits & off-season push steel mills to cut production in July

Published: Jul 6, 2026 18:54

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SMM CRC Production Schedule: July Steel Mill CRC Production Schedule Down 2%, Daily Average Down 6%

According to the latest SMM tracking, the planned cold-rolled commercial material volume of 31 mainstream cold-rolled sheet/coil steel mills this month totaled 4.1115 million mt, down 99,700 mt or 2.4% MoM from the actual cold-rolled commercial material production last month.
On a daily average basis, with one more day in July than in June, the daily average scheduled cold-rolled commercial material production in July was 132,600 mt, down 5.5% MoM from the actual daily average production last month.

SMM HRC Production Schedule: July Steel Mills' HRC Scheduled Production Up 1% Daily Average Down 2%

According to the latest SMM tracking, 39 mainstream HRC mills have a total planned commercial HRC output of 13.4457 million mt this month, up 132,800 mt, or 1.0%, MoM.
On a daily average basis, July has one more day than June. The daily average scheduled commercial HRC production in July is 433,700 mt, down 2.3% from the actual daily average production in June.
Recently, steel mill profits have shrunk sharply, and pressure to take orders has increased significantly amid the off-season. Some mills have added new maintenance and production-cut plans. Combined, these factors led to the MoM decline in the daily average HRC scheduled production in July.

In summary, the total planned commercial HRC output in July was basically flat MoM, but due to more days in July than June, the daily average scheduled production edged down MoM. Demand side, Q2 remained in the domestic off-season, with downstream purchases and market transactions performing sluggishly. Inventory pressure is expected to keep rising, and the supply-demand imbalance is gradually accumulating. The HRC supply-demand pattern provides limited support for prices.
Overall, the HRC supply-demand imbalance is gradually building up, and it is becoming increasingly difficult for costs to rise further in the short term. Considering that macro expectations and changes in external conflicts provide limited stimulus to steel prices, HRC prices in July are expected to consolidate near the bottom, with the average price likely to edge down slightly from June.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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