Tin Prices Fell Under Pressure in June; Macro Expectations Shifted Combined with Low Inventory, How Far Can the Rebound Go in the Off-Season? [Monthly Outlook]

SMM, July 6 news:

In June, market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes heated up, with the US dollar index gaining over 2% for the month. This was compounded by the electronics industry entering its traditional off-season and weak end-use demand, along with market skepticism over the sustainability of the AI sector's boom, which led to concentrated profit-taking from earlier high-level positions. Multiple factors jointly dragged tin prices lower, with SHFE tin falling 7.08% and LME tin dropping 6.68% in June monthly. Entering July, Warsh remarked at the Sintra Forum that "inflation expectations have declined and inflation risks have receded over the past four weeks." Coupled with US June non-farm payrolls data coming in below expectations, market expectations for US Fed rate hikes cooled somewhat. Meanwhile, tech stocks staged a rebound. Multiple tailwinds drove tin prices to drift higher in early July. As of around 16:51 on July 6, LME tin rose 1.26% to $52,970/mt, with its July monthly performance provisionally up 2.56%; SHFE tin gained 3.09% to 410,360 yuan/mt, with its July monthly performance provisionally up 5.4%.

Spot side,

in June, tin prices fell over 8%; in July, spot prices rose for several consecutive sessions, but a strong wait-and-see sentiment pervaded the market.

For tin spot prices: SMM 1# tin spot prices posted four consecutive gains, quoted at 406,900–415,300 yuan/mt on July 6, with an average price of 411,100 yuan/mt, up 2.96% from the prior trading day. As tin prices rebounded, wait-and-see sentiment in the spot market intensified, with only some rigid demand purchases occurring and subdued overall trading activity.

Looking at the monthly trend of tin spot prices, the average price of SMM 1# tin as of June 30 was 387,800 yuan/mt. Compared with the average price of 425,000 yuan/mt on May 29, it fell by 37,200 yuan/mt over the span of just over a month, a decline of 8.75%. Notably, when tin prices approached 380,000 yuan/mt, downstream enterprise restocking demand saw a phase of release.

Fundamental side

► Production:

June Refined Tin Production Edges Up MoM

According to data compiled by SMM based on market communication, in June 2026, China's refined tin production edged up MoM, with overall output remaining relatively steady.

The slight uptick in June refined tin production was driven by two main factors: On one hand, raw material supply showed marginal improvement, as previous incremental overseas tin ore imports materialized. Although the pace of production resumptions at Myanmar mines remained slow, ore has been flowing out continuously, alleviating domestic raw material shortages to some extent. On the other hand, increased arrivals of imported ore cargoes drove smelting TCs steadily higher, offering a phased easing of the longstanding raw material tightness and creating conditions for smelters to raise operating rates and boost output.

However, future production expansion faces multiple constraints: from May to July every year, Myanmar enters its traditional rainy season, which limits both open-pit mining operations and ore transport. As a result, short-term imported ore volumes are expected to pull back MoM.

Overall, the refined tin supply is marginally loose at present, but downstream industries have entered the traditional consumption off-season, weakening both supply and demand sides simultaneously. In the short term, a significant output surge appears unlikely.

►Imports:

Tin ore imports rose both YoY and MoM in May; imports from Myanmar surged 384.5% YoY

In May, China’s tin ore imports reached 16,800 mt (equivalent to about 6,408 mt in metal content), up 7.07% MoM and 25.61% YoY, an increase of 1,221 mt in metal content from April (which was equivalent to 5,187 mt). January-May cumulative imports totaled 85,900 mt, up 71.41% YoY. In May, China’s tin ingot imports were 1,838 mt, down 34.4% MoM and 11.46% YoY; January-April cumulative imports reached 11,196 mt, up 17.75% YoY.

Import and export data for the tin industry chain from 2025 to May 2026 show that the global tin market’s supply-demand pattern is undergoing significant structural adjustments, characterized by accelerating recovery of overseas mine supply, easing of domestic raw material supply pressure, increased smelting output due to lower raw material costs, and constrained exports amid weak overseas demand. In terms of raw material supply, cumulative tin ore imports in January-May 2026 reached 85,998 mt, surging 71.41% YoY, while May alone registered 16,831 mt, up 7.07% MoM and soaring 25.61% YoY. This strong rebound was mainly driven by the recovery of Myanmar ore, with tin ore imports from Myanmar hitting 6,634 mt in May, skyrocketing 384.5% YoY, and the January-May cumulative figure spiking as high as 203.49% YoY. In contrast, although tin ore imports from countries other than Myanmar still maintained a cumulative increase of 34.72%, they declined 15.23% YoY in May alone, indicating a more moderate recovery in ore supply from non-Myanmar sources.

►Inventories:

SMM weekly tin ingot social inventory across three regions continued destocking for four consecutive weeks.

China’s tin ingot social inventory: According to SMM data, as of July 4, 2026, the total tin ingot social inventory across three regions in China stood at 7,299 mt, a sharp WoW decline of 1,374 mt, or 15.84%, from 8,673 mt the prior week (June 26). In terms of trend, since the stage high of 13,604 mt in early June, China’s tin ingot social inventory has been destocking for four consecutive weeks, with a cumulative destocking of as much as 46.4% over the past month. The destocking slope exhibited a “slow-then-steep” characteristic. The current inventory level has fallen back to the year’s low, and the market supply-demand pattern has seen notable marginal improvement. Observing by region, inventory in Shanghai dropped to 3,750 mt, a weekly decrease of 996 mt, contributing 72.5% of the total weekly destocking volume, making it the dominant driver of this destocking round and reflecting faster trade turnover in east China and a substantive rebound in downstream purchase willingness. Guangdong inventory fell in tandem to 3,449 mt, down 378 mt WoW, accounting for 27.5% of total destocking, confirming that downstream rigid demand, led by solder enterprises in south China, maintained resilience and the pace of stockpiling picked up. The underlying logic is driven, on the one hand, by restocking after price pullbacks: the previously high tin price dampened downstream purchases, but this inhibitory effect gradually subsided as prices recently returned to rational levels, unleashing pent-up rigid orders in a concentrated manner and accelerating the digestion of visible inventory.

LME Tin Inventory: LME tin inventory data stood at 8,575 mt on June 30, compared with 8,850 mt on May 29, indicating a decline in LME tin inventory during June.

SMM Outlook

On the macro front: In July, multiple macro events in and outside China will continue to disturb tin price movements. Overseas, focus on the minutes of the June US Fed FOMC meeting, US CPI and PCE inflation data, and the month-end US Fed meeting. Earlier, Waller indicated that inflation risks have eased, while the June non-farm payrolls data missed expectations, leading to a phased cooling of market bets on rate hikes. If subsequent inflation data rebound again and the US Fed strikes a hawkish tone, a stronger US dollar will weigh on tin prices; otherwise, continued easing expectations will provide valuation support for tin prices. Domestically, the central bank has increased liquidity injections, ultra-long special government bonds are being steadily implemented, and stimulus policies related to high-end manufacturing technological transformation and equipment upgrades are gradually taking effect, which will benefit medium and long-term consumption in tin downstream sectors such as semiconductors, AI computing power, and new energy. However, in the short term, the weak pattern of the traditional off-season in the electronics sector is unlikely to reverse quickly, and the pace at which domestic demand policy dividends are released will directly determine the strength of downstream spot restocking.

Fundamentals: On the supply side, the overall tightness of tin ore supply persists, though marginal supply increase signals have grown; smelters are maintaining steady production with no large-scale production cuts for now. On the demand side, the market has entered the traditional consumption off-season, with downstream solder enterprises generally cautious in procurement, relying solely on rigid-demand purchases, while high prices are significantly suppressing purchase willingness. On the inventory side, tin inventories both in and outside China remain in a destocking trend, providing inventory-side support for tin prices.

In summary, changes in macro expectations combined with the performance of the tech sector will influence the amplitude of tin price fluctuations. Tight ore supply and low overall inventories form a relatively strong fundamental floor, underpinning tin prices; but weak demand during the off-season will continue to drag on futures, limiting the upside room for tin prices. Looking ahead, close attention should be paid to the US Fed's policy direction and the prosperity of the semiconductor industry chain, while continuously observing the pace of destocking in and outside China, and waiting for a substantive recovery on the demand side, which can then bring new upward momentum to tin prices.