Port arrivals surged 6.07% YoY, and ore prices are expected to remain subdued in the near future [SMM Daily Commentary on Imported Ore]

Today, DCE iron ore futures trended firm, pulling back slightly in the afternoon. The I2609 contract closed at 738 yuan/mt, up 0.14% from the previous trading day. Port spot prices rose 2–3 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Traders were active in quoting, steel mills purchased as needed, buying interest was moderate, and as of now, spot transaction volumes were relatively low.

Looking ahead, with the downstream entering the off-season and mine shipment pace slowing down, the iron ore supply side is expected to tighten slightly, but the overall ample supply pattern is unlikely to change. Last week, SMM global iron ore shipments totaled 35.16 million mt, up 1.53% WoW, and cumulatively up 1.77% YoY. Among them, Australia's shipments edged down 6% WoW, but Brazil's shipments surged nearly 20% WoW, while shipments from non-mainstream countries edged up MoM. Among the four major miners, Rio Tinto and FMG saw shipment declines. In addition, last week, SMM China iron ore arrivals totaled 28.78 million mt, down 1.88% WoW, and cumulatively up 6.07% YoY. Based on comprehensive analysis, iron ore prices are likely to fluctuate within a range in the near term, but the bearish pattern will persist in the long term. [SMM Steel]