Monday, July 6, 2026
Futures: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $13,354.5/mt, dipped to $13,343/mt at the start of the session, then drifted higher in small fluctuations to touch $13,392/mt, and finally closed at $13,357.5/mt, up 0.54%, with trading volume at 8,500 lots and open interest at 250,000 lots, a decrease of 587 lots from the previous trading day, driven by bear position reductions. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 102,710 yuan/mt; after opening, copper’s price center dipped to 102,710 yuan/mt, then exhibited a "W" pattern, touched a high of 103,010 yuan/mt near the session end, and eventually closed at 102,790 yuan/mt, up 0.14%, with trading volume of 16,300 lots and open interest of 151,000 lots, down 811 lots from the previous trading day, driven by bull position reductions.
[SMM Copper Morning Brief] News:(1) On Friday, July 3, Aurubis commissioned its "Complex Recycling Hamburg (CRH)" plant in Hamburg, a world-first facility built with an investment of 190 million euros, aimed at strengthening Europe's strategic metal recycling capacity.
(2) The latest data released by the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed that SHFE copper inventories continued to decline in the week ended July 3, with weekly inventories falling 9.62% to 122,677 mt, hitting a new low for the year, as domestic available copper cathode volumes continued to shrink. International copper inventories fell by 2,574 mt to 15,285 mt. Data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) showed that LME copper inventories continued destocking last week, with the latest inventory level at 318,900 mt, a three-and-a-half-month low.
Spot:(1) Shanghai: On July 3, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2606 contract were quoted at premiums of 10–110 yuan/mt, with the average at a premium of 60 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2607 contract opened with a gap-up and then showed a weak upward trend; it opened at 102,390 yuan/mt, then prices jumped to around 102,820 yuan/mt, followed by a continued weak climb, touching a high of 103,160 yuan/mt during the session, and dipped slightly before the close, closing at 102,990 yuan/mt. The Contango spread between the front and next-month contracts stood between 10 yuan/mt and 70 yuan/mt, while the SHFE copper import profit margin for the 2607 contract ranged from a loss of 240 yuan/mt to a loss of 290 yuan/mt.
(2) Guangdong: On July 3, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 60 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 20 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 50 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,965 yuan/mt, up 625 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while SX-EW copper averaged 102,875 yuan/mt, up 620 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, suppliers firmed up offers amid continued inventory decline, but overall trading was mediocre.
(3) Imported copper: On July 3, the average warrant price was flat from the previous trading day at $74/mt, July-August; the average B/L price was flat at $74/mt, $68-80/mt; the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price was flat at $45/mt, $40-50/mt, with offers referencing cargoes arriving from July to early August.
(4) Secondary copper: On July 3 at 11:30, the futures closing price was 103,070 yuan/mt, up 890 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; spot premiums averaged 60 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt MoM from the previous trading day; secondary copper raw material prices rose 100 yuan/mt MoM. The secondary copper raw material sales sentiment index rose to 2.41, while the purchasing sentiment index fell to 2.40. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,957 yuan/mt, up 788 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 520 yuan/mt. According to SMM survey, by the end of the week, copper prices rebounded, and the price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap widened back to 1,900 yuan/mt; holders of secondary copper raw materials demonstrated active willingness to sell, while secondary copper rod enterprises showed insufficient restocking sentiment. This week, as secondary copper rod prices held premiums against futures, transactions were scarce; increased finished product inventories dampened secondary copper rod enterprises' willingness to restock raw materials.
Prices: On the macro front, the Iranian Parliament Speaker stated there is still a chance to reach an agreement with the US, and markets expect the US-Iran talks to remain fragile. Additionally, continued destocking in LME inventories provided support to copper’s price bottom. Fundamentals side, supply side, suppliers maintained a firm tendency to hold prices firm, with high-quality copper supply tight and overall spot availability staying tight; demand side, rigid restocking demand at the beginning of the month supported purchasing needs, but higher copper prices curbed downstream buying sentiment. Overall, copper prices are expected to hold up well today.
[Data Source Disclaimer: Except for publicly available information, all other data presented herein are derived from public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, processed by SMM, and are for reference only; they do not constitute any decision-making advice.]
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