7.7 Morning Meeting Minutes
Market Hot Topics:
Indonesia's Investment and Downstream Industry Ministry stated that Australian battery material processing technology company Pure Battery Technologies (PBT) plans to build a ternary cathode precursor project in Indonesia, producing based on local MHP, with an investment of $350 million.
Macro:
(1) The central bank announced that on July 6, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 1,000 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation via a fixed quantity, rate-based auction, multiple price bidding method, for a term of 3 months (91 days), maturing on October 5, 2026 (postponed if encountering holidays).
(2) The State Council issued the 15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Beautiful China. The plan proposes actively yet prudently promoting and achieving carbon peak. It calls for implementing the national strategy to actively address climate change, fulfilling nationally determined contribution targets, steadily advancing carbon peak actions, and fully implementing the dual control system over total carbon emissions and carbon intensity.
Spot Market:
On July 6, the SMM #1 refined nickel price fell by 750 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. For spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 2,300 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the range for mainstream domestic brand electrodeposited nickel was -400-400 yuan/mt.
Futures Market:
The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract moved sideways in the morning, closing at 126,920 yuan/mt at the end of the morning session, up 0.12%.
The US nonfarm payrolls data came in surprisingly weak, prompting the market to turn cautious on the employment outlook. Expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes cooled markedly, and a sharp drop in the US dollar provided a catalyst for a nickel price rebound. In the near term, nickel prices are expected to consolidate in the doldrums within the range of 125,000-135,000 yuan/mt.
Nickel Sulphate
On July 6, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate average price slipped.
Cost side, nickel prices gradually moved sideways, pressured by inventory and expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, spot production cost of nickel sulphate consolidated at lows. Supply side, the tight supply of intermediate products persisted, with MHP payables and auxiliary materials such as sulphuric acid prices staying high; nickel salt smelters held offer prices high, though some enterprises also released low-cost inventory. Demand side, as nickel prices dropped sharply MoM and some downstream enterprises accumulated inventory, downstream buying sentiment was subdued, with relatively low acceptance of nickel salt prices. Today, the upstream nickel salt smelters' Willingness to Sell Sentiment Factor was 1.8, the downstream precursor plants' purchasing sentiment factor was 2.5, and the sentiment factor for integrated enterprises was 2.4 (historical data can be accessed via the database).
Looking ahead, the stockpiling period in July is expected to shift to the latter part of the month, with attention on the impact of nickel prices and intermediate products on cost support.
NPI
SMM, July 6 – The SMM high-grade NPI market sentiment factor stood at 1.99, flat DoD. The upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.25, down 0.01 DoD, while the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.73, up 0.01 DoD. The overall market is currently on a downward trajectory. Downstream buyers largely maintained a cautious, wait-and-see stance, actively limiting purchase volumes and significantly reducing acceptance of high-priced cargoes. Seller offers showed divergence, with limited changes in quotes for mid- and low-grade cargoes. High-grade nickel suppliers offered discounts to sell, leading to sporadic spot transactions. However, bulk procurement demand was absent, the price spread between grades continued to narrow, and the market tug-of-war intensified.
Stainless Steel
According to SMM on July 6, SS futures overall traced a bottom-out pattern. During the night session on Friday, SS futures dipped sharply but quickly recovered after the daytime session opened on Monday. As of the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,740 yuan/mt. In the spot market, morning stainless steel offers were pressured lower by Friday night's decline, with overall quotes on the low side. As futures surged, spot quotes were subsequently revised higher. Inquiries markedly improved, but transactions were mostly concentrated on low-priced cargoes.
SS most-traded futures contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2608 was at 14,725 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 245-795 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price for cold-rolled 201/2B coil was flat; the average price for cold-rolled uncut edge 304/2B coil was flat in Wuxi and flat in Foshan; the cold-rolled 316L/2B coil price in Wuxi was flat; quotes for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi were flat; and cold-rolled 430/2B coil prices in both Wuxi and Foshan were flat.
This week, macro and industrial logic tug-of-war dominated futures. US inflation data pulled back, further cooling market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, and the US dollar index weakened. This overall boosted valuations of commodities and non-ferrous metals, providing macro support for the metals sector. However, sentiment on the industrial side remained bearish. The issue of Indonesia's supplementary nickel ore quotas remained unresolved, fueling strong concerns over ample nickel resource supply ahead. SHFE nickel traded in a low range without an effective rebound. Weighed down by nickel prices, SS futures remained in the doldrums and struggled to rise. However, strong support at the key 14,500 yuan/mt level below held, preventing a breakdown, with prices moving sideways in a consolidation pattern. In the spot and inventory market, mainstream steel mills continued to hold prices firm, locking in the downside room for spot prices from the factory gate. The market has now fully entered the traditional consumption off-season, with inherently weak end-use rigid demand. Combined with stainless steel futures remaining weak, overall trading confidence was insufficient, and traders showed a strong willingness to destock and sell. Downstream end-users were cautious and wait-and-see, mainly purchasing on a need basis, leading to persistently sluggish transactions in the market. On the supply side, news of maintenance and production cuts continued to ferment. Although the current round of social inventory stopped declining and edged slightly higher, the increase was limited, keeping overall inventory pressure relatively low. Multiple factors jointly supported firm spot prices. On the cost and profit side, finished steel and raw material prices weakened in tandem this week, and the improvement in structural price spreads drove steel mill profits to expand WoW. During the week, the price centers of nickel-based raw materials and stainless steel finished products both shifted lower, with the decline in raw materials exceeding the adjustment in finished products. Coupled with spot prices remaining firm on the back of steel mills holding prices firm, the profit margin of finished steel recovered. Overall smelting profits at stainless steel mills expanded this week, and the industry's profitability environment improved marginally. Overall, the stainless steel market this week exhibited a two-way pattern of macro support and industrial pressure, with a clear divergence between weak futures and firm spot prices. Weak end-use demand and sluggish transactions during the off-season were the core bearish fundamentals, while steel mills' price-supporting measures, maintenance expectations, and low inventories continued to underpin spot prices. The decline in raw material prices gave way to profit recovery at steel mills, easing profitability pressure on the production side. In the near term, the market will continue to trade around US Fed policy expectations and Indonesian nickel ore policy games; futures are expected to maintain range-bound consolidation, while the firm spot pattern persists. Going forward, focus on the US dollar index trend, the implementation of Indonesian nickel quotas, key support levels for stainless steel futures, changes in downstream off-season rigid demand, and steel mill maintenance and commissioning progress.
Nickel Ore:
Philippine Market:
CIF China offers fell overall this week, with 1.3% quoted at $45.5–47/wmt, 1.4% at $56–57/wmt, 1.5% at $64–65/wmt, and 1.8% at $91–94/wmt; CIF Indonesia offers were flat, with 1.3% at $45–46/wmt and 1.4% at $55–56/wmt, largely aligned with smelter tender prices. Freight rates eased significantly this week: Surigao to Lianyungang was about $13.25/wmt, and Surigao to Indonesia about $11/wmt, with overall freight rates falling about $0.5/wmt WoW, significantly easing the previous situation of "stubbornly high freight rates." FOB prices moved lower in tandem, with 1.3% at $33–35/wmt, 1.4% at $41.5–43.5/wmt, and 1.8% at $76–78/wmt, confirming the earlier assessment that FOB would follow CIF downward.
On the supply side, Zambales and Northern Luzon production areas have officially entered the rainy season, with mine road conditions worsening, leading to shipping disruptions and low outbound volumes. Weather-wise, the Philippines is expected to see continuous rainfall over the first five days of the coming week, with showers mainly in the last two days, leading to an overall surge in weekly cumulative rainfall across the country. Meanwhile, a low-pressure system is forming over eastern waters. Although it is not expected to intensify into a tropical depression or tropical storm, it is forecast to make landfall over the central-southern Philippines next Monday and move northwestward over land, affecting the three major islands of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. In the main production areas, next week's cumulative rainfall in the Manicani-Homonhon-Dinagat-Surigao area is expected to at least double from this week, with the Homonhon area forecast to experience 2–3 days of swell impact. In the Dinapigue area, next week's rainfall is projected to be about six times that of this week, with wave heights on Wednesday and Thursday expected to reach around 1.7 meters. At loading points in Palawan like RTN, Ipilan, and Berong, next week's rainfall is also expected to be higher than this week. In the Zambales area, next week's cumulative rainfall is expected to be approximately 2.5 times this week's level. Although weather disruptions persist, Chinese port inventories are already at high levels, limiting weather-driven price support significantly.
Cost side, international oil prices pulled back slightly, easing cost pressure in mining and shipping, but spot freight rates remain at a relatively high level, with the softening not yet fully materializing. Demand side, smelter inventories in both China and India are high, leaving restocking appetite weak in the near term. The buyer-dominated pattern persists, and spot market transactions are sluggish. On the inventory front, as of June 26, Philippine nickel ore inventories at Chinese ports stood at approximately 6.44 million wmt (equivalent to about 51,000 mt in nickel metal content), extending the ample supply pattern.
Indonesia market:
The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources set the July first-session HMA nickel benchmark price at $17,225.67/dmt, a sharp cut of about 7.6% from the June second-session's $18,642.33/dmt. Based on this, the calculated HPM theoretical price for Ni1.6% saprolite ore is around $66.6/wmt, and for Ni1.2% limonite ore around $47.4/wmt. For premiums, the premium for 1.6% grade held steady, the premium for 1.4% grade is about $1.3/wmt, and the premium for 1.5% and 1.6% grades is around $3/wmt, with limited overall fluctuations. In spot transactions, 1.2% limonite ore was quoted at about $30/wmt and 1.5% saprolite ore at about $65/wmt, with both dropping a combined roughly $5.5/wmt this week, driven mainly by the steep decline in the HMA benchmark price.
Supply side, the rainy season impact in Sulawesi production areas remains relatively mild in some regions, limiting the overall effect on shipments. However, the weather situation in the Halmahera and Obi Island production areas is generally more severe, with persistent heavy rainfall and deteriorating sea conditions already constraining some mine production. Despite disruptions on the shipment side, smelters’ overall inventory levels remained relatively ample, with limited near-term impact on the procurement pace. Meanwhile, smelters continued to raise their requirements for nickel ore grade—low-grade ore (1.3–1.4%) supply was largely supplemented by Philippine shipments, and several smelters shifted to actively seeking high-grade ore (≥1.45%). However, supply of high-grade domestic ore in Indonesia was still scarce, with traded grades concentrated in the 1.45–1.50% Ni range, intensifying procurement competition. Spot transaction prices for limonite ore (1.2%) were stable this week, as smelters maintained low-level procurement and generally refused to transact at the theoretical HPM price; discounts remained deep, and low HPAL operating rates continued to weigh on purchasing prices. On the policy front, on Thursday, June 25, Tri Winarno, Director General of Coal and Minerals at Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, clarified that the total RKAB quota for nickel ore in 2026 had yet to be finalized, with the government still reviewing companies’ revision applications under the official evaluation mechanism; specific figures were unconfirmed, and the focus was on assessing actual industry demand rather than relaxing restrictions. The RKAB revision window officially opened on July 1 and runs through July 31, with mining enterprises already initiating preparatory work for revision applications and intensively submitting materials to adjust production quotas; all adjustments are subject to comprehensive review.
![[SMM Nickel Intermediate Product Daily Review] On July 7, MHP and high-grade nickel matte nickel prices and cobalt prices fell](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/OjGlE20251217171734.jpg)
![[SMM Nickel Midday Review] On July 7, nickel prices moved sideways, as US Fed Governor Waller said inflation risks had surpassed employment risks.](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/LNpBh20251217171732.jpeg)
