SMM, July 3: At the start of this week, the long-quiet cobalt market saw fresh news again—the DRC announced that unused quotas for H1 2026 will be automatically voided and transferred in a unified manner to the ARECOMS strategic quota pool. Boosted by this news, market pessimism was eased, and refined cobalt prices stopped falling and rebounded, but weak downstream demand remained an inescapable topic in the cobalt market… SMM has compiled this week’s price changes for cobalt products as follows:
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According to SMM spot quotes, refined cobalt spot prices stopped falling and rebounded this week. As of July 3, refined cobalt spot quotes stood at 378,000-385,000 yuan/mt, averaging 381,500 yuan/mt, up 2,000 yuan/mt from 379,500 yuan/mt on June 26, an increase of 0.53%.
» View SMM cobalt-lithium spot quotes
From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, mainstream smelters’ EXW prices first fell then rose during the week, and currently, EXW prices are stable at 385,000 yuan/mt. After market stabilization, traders resumed offering, with the spot-futures price spread remaining in a range of parity to a premium of 10,000 yuan/mt. On the demand side, boosted by DRC-related news, downstream end-user inquiries warmed slightly, and weekly transactions improved slightly WoW, but most deals were for essential early stockpiling, and a substantive recovery in end-user demand has yet to materialize. In the near term, insufficient downstream demand support, combined with high industry inventories, may keep futures consolidating. A recovery in refined cobalt prices still requires an uptrend in upstream categories such as cobalt intermediate products and cobalt sulphate to drive it.
Cobalt salts ( and ):
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According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt sulphate spot prices edged down slightly on the first day and then remained stable this week. As of July 3, spot cobalt sulphate quotes were temporarily steady at 85,000-87,000 yuan/mt, averaging 86,000 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from June 26, a decline of 0.17%.
» View SMM cobalt-lithium spot quotes
According to SMM, the cobalt sulphate market remained sluggish this week. On the supply side, primary smelters’ quotes remained firm overall, with mainstream enterprises holding their minimum shipment target price at 85,000 yuan/mt. Boosted by the mid-week DRC policy news, market pessimism was repaired, and some recycling smelters and traders’ willingness to sell at lower prices weakened. Low-priced cargo offers were raised from 80,000-81,000 yuan/mt last week to 82,000-83,000 yuan/mt. Demand side showed no significant recovery yet. Downstream enterprises generally adopted a produce-based-on-sales model, and product settlements mostly used a monthly average price mechanism. To avoid the risk of price spread between purchase and sale at specific time points, most enterprises maintained a wait-and-see sentiment in early July, and substantial restocking activities were likely delayed to mid-to-late July.In the short term, cobalt sulphate prices mainly consolidated. The sustained recovery of the market still needs to wait for the concentrated restocking demand from downstream to be realized.
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According to SMM spot quotes, the spot quote of cobalt chloride drifted lower this week. As of July 3, cobalt chloride spot quotes fell to 102,500-104,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 103,250 yuan/mt, down 2,000 yuan/mt from 105,250 yuan/mt on June 26, a decline of 1.9%.
According to SMM, the cobalt chloride market remained sluggish this week. Inquiries increased somewhat, but actual transactions were still scarce. On Tuesday, the DRC announced the cancellation of unused quotas for Q2 2026, which only caused a slight fluctuation in the market in the morning and calmed down in the afternoon, indicating that the market's focus had shifted from supply-side disruptions to fundamentals, own demand, and inventory conditions. However, from a fundamental perspective, price rebound faced significant resistance, and the market remained pessimistic in the short term. Supply side, smelter quotes began to stabilize, with some enterprises even slightly raising quotes to test the market; but although downstream inquiries increased, actual implementation was limited. July prices will still need to wait for representative transactions to emerge before having reference significance. Demand side, the "rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn" sentiment dominated purchasing decisions. Downstream enterprises were still observing whether the current stabilization was a mid-drop pause or a true bottom, and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong.Overall assessment, short-term cobalt chloride prices are expected to be largely stable, with limited further downside room.
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According to SMM spot quotes, Co3O4 spot quotes continued to decline this week. As of July 3, Co3O4 spot quotes fell to 315,000-330,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 322,500 yuan/mt, down 12,500 yuan/mt from 335,000 yuan/mt on June 26, a decline of 3.73%.
According to SMM, the Co3O4 market remained extremely sluggish this week, with actual transactions being scarce. Supply side, the mid-year report window had passed, enterprises that were bearish earlier had largely completed their shipments, and after the phased selling pressure was released, quotes stabilized this week. Demand side, although the traditional purchasing window had opened, amidst sustained price pressure, downstream cathode material plants still mainly adopted a wait-and-see stance and continued to push for lower prices in purchasing. The persistently depressed prices further dampened upstream willingness to sell. Overall, the subsequent trajectory of Co3O4 will depend on the price direction of cobalt salts, with near-term movement likely to track sideways in tandem with cobalt chloride.
On the raw material front for cobalt intermediate products, SMM spot price data showed that spot prices for cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) edged down this week, with overall fluctuations remaining relatively small. As of July 3, spot prices for cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) stood at $24.25–25.5/lb, with an average of $24.875/lb, down $0.25/lb from the $25.125/lb recorded on June 26, a decline of 0.1%.
SMM learned that trading in the spot cobalt intermediate product market was sluggish this week. Mid-week, the DRC government announced the revocation of miners' unused export quotas for H1 2026, significantly boosting long-term bullish sentiment in the market. Supported by this, mainstream miners kept their offers firm around the $25.5/lb level, while some traders' lowest shipment prices for small-lot cargoes stabilized near $24/lb. With cobalt salt market valuations currently running at low levels, a back-calculation based on spot cobalt salt prices suggests that downstream smelters would only accept raw material procurement prices around $23/lb. This creates a notable price spread between buyers and sellers, resulting in a stalemate with few actual transactions being concluded. In the short term, downstream smelting demand offers weak support, and intermediate product prices are likely to continue moving sideways. A breakout to the upside would depend on a demand recovery driven by improved cobalt salt valuations.
On the news front, at the start of this week, DRC policy once again roiled the market with the announcement, based on the Autorité de Régulation et de Contrôle des Marchés des Substances Minérales Stratégiques (ARECOMS) press release No. 2026/003, that unused quotas from H1 2026 would be revoked and reallocated into a strategic quota pool. Following the policy release, SMM quickly assessed its potential impact, measuring the supply of cobalt intermediate products (including some high-grade recycled cobalt as supplementary material) into China for June-December 2026 and for 2027 based on two scenarios:
1. Based on market statistics, as of May 2026, miners in the DRC had only made prepayments for approximately 32,000 mt in metal content of cobalt intermediate products. Considering a shipping period of over three months from the DRC to China and the need to supply some cobalt resources to regions outside China, SMM assumes China's imports of cobalt intermediate products from June 2026 to December 2026 will be 46,000 mt in cobalt metal content, with domestic self-production of around 500 mt. For 2027, assuming miners allocate 80% of the 87,000 mt in metal content quota for cobalt intermediate products to China, imports would be around 70,000 mt in cobalt metal content, with domestic self-production of around 1,000 mt.
2. With the strong growth in China's recycled cobalt output this year driven by high economic viability, high-quality recycled cobalt that can partially substitute intermediate products is factored in as supplementary material. This would contribute approximately 18,000 mt in cobalt metal content of raw material from June to December 2026, and about 36,000 mt in cobalt metal content in 2027.
From June to December 2026, demand for cobalt intermediate products (including some high-grade recycled cobalt as supplementary material) in China is expected to be around 58,000 mt in cobalt metal content, resulting in a slight surplus of 6,000 mt in cobalt metal content. This surplus is primarily attributed to the arrival of large volumes of intermediate products into ports from August 2026 onward. In 2027, China's demand for cobalt intermediate products (including some high-cobalt recycled supplementary materials) is approximately 105,000 mt Co, with a slight surplus of 3,000 mt Co. However, this surplus remains subject to the following uncertainties. First, if miners, after completing approvals, reduce circulation to control intermediate product prices, the market will still face relatively tight conditions. Second, the approval progress in the DRC remains relatively slow, and the future basic export quotas may not be fully shipped out. If imports fall short of expectations, the market will still face a relatively tight supply.
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