[SMM Iron & Steel] SEA Billet Import Market Weakens as Buyers Wait for Lower Offers

The most-traded HRC contract fluctuated today, closing at 3,279 with a slight intraday decline of 0.3%. This week, cold-rolled and hot-rolled prices continued to weaken, and overall transaction volumes remained low. In terms of supply, the impact from mill line maintenance decreased WoW, leading to a slight increase in total HRC production. On the demand side, apparent demand dropped MoM. Regarding inventory, according to SMM statistics, HRC social inventory across 86 warehouses nationwide (large sample) reached 4.3757 million mt, up 84,500 mt or 1.97% WoW, and up 43.10% YoY on a lunar calendar basis. By region, all markets saw inventory buildup WoW, with the Northeast market recording a relatively large buildup. Cost side, the ninth round of coke price increases was implemented this week. Influenced by raw material market news, costs showed a pattern of strength early on and weakness later. Looking ahead, although the market has initiated a tenth round of coke price hikes, hot metal output has slowly pulled back from its peak, and cost support is expected to remain flat compared to earlier estimates. From the HRC supply-demand perspective, the current imbalance continues to accumulate. Amid off-season demand, inventory pressure is expected to persist and weigh on prices. Combined with remaining cost-side support, downside room is relatively small. HRC prices are likely to show a bottom-consolidation pattern next week, with the most-traded HRC contract moving in the 3,250–3,330 range.

[Turkey] Domestic and export demand for Turkish rebar remained weak throughout this week, driving its export price down to 575 USD/tonne FOB, mainly due to continuous declines in mill inventories and a lack of firm buy orders, while HRC offers were lowered to 585 USD/tonne FOB. The domestic market remains sluggish with little expectation of a significant recovery in demand this summer. Due to the slow recovery in construction demand, large mills hold ample rebar inventories for delivery, whereas traders are hesitant to restock due to weak cash flow and high borrowing costs.

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 03 Jul , 2026