SMM Monthly Update on Primary Aluminum Projects Outside China: Concentrated Commissioning Expected in 2026–2027

SMM, July 3:
In early June, according to public information, the Kazakh Prime Minister met with the Vice Chairman of Xinfa Group. Xinfa expected that, based on its entire industry chain industrial park construction plan, the project will create a highly integrated production system, achieving full chain production from raw materials to high value-added aluminum products by deeply processing bauxite. After the project is put into operation, the annual alumina capacity is expected to reach 4.8 million mt and the aluminum capacity 2.4 million mt.
With the announcement of this project, according to SMM's tally, total planned aluminum capacity outside China for 2026 and beyond reaches 20.72 million mt. 

(including a small amount of capacity that came online in 2025)
Of this, in 2026, total planned aluminum capacity to be commissioned outside China is about 2.3 million mt, of which about 700,000 mt has been commissioned, and the remaining 1.6 million mt is expected to be commissioned in H2 2026. In 2027, 3.555 million mt of new capacity is planned to be commissioned, with Indonesia accounting for about 67.5%. The cumulative planned new capacity from 2026 to 2027 is about 5.855 million mt, accounting for 28.3% of the total planned capacity for 2026 and beyond.