Low Willingness to Sell among Manufacturers, Weak Futures and Spot Prices [SMM SiMn Weekly Review]

As of this Friday, SiMn 6517 (cash) in the northern market was quoted at 5,600-5,700 yuan/mt, down WoW; in the southern market, SiMn 6517 (cash) was at 5,650-5,750 yuan/mt, down from last Friday, and SiMn 6014 (cash) was at 5,450-5,500 yuan/mt, also down WoW.

Recently, SiMn futures moved sideways in the doldrums, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing and low willingness to sell from producers; both futures and spot prices remained weak.

Cost side: For ore, spot manganese ore prices stayed high. For coke, following a safety incident in Shanxi, coke costs and prices rose consecutively. For electricity prices, Guangxi and Guizhou maintained high rates with no expectations of reduction after previous hikes; Yunnan, about to enter its rainy season, is set to lower electricity prices soon; and power rationing in parts of Inner Mongolia during its low-wind season could raise electricity prices. With these intertwined factors, comprehensive SiMn production costs stayed high, placing smelters under notable pressure.

Supply side: In Inner Mongolia, capacity releases and blast furnace maintenance occurred simultaneously, keeping operating rates broadly stable. In Ningxia, producers’ operating rates saw relatively small fluctuations, and they retained some production enthusiasm. In south China, alloy plant operating rates were generally low, with production based strictly on purchasing as needed; the market trading atmosphere was sluggish. Overall, supply changes for the industry were limited, and enterprises’ finished product inventories stayed high. Elevated destocking pressure exerted some downward force on SiMn futures and spot prices in the short term.

Demand side: End-use consumption of alloys was sluggish, and downstream procurement sentiment remained weak. Steel mills and traders took a cautious stance on restocking, making it difficult to provide an effective boost to the SiMn market in the short term. Steel mill tenders were launched successively; HBIS’s SiMn purchase volume for June 2026 was 15,400 mt, up MoM from 8,500 mt in May. HBIS’s initial inquiry price for June 2026 SiMn was 5,950 yuan/mt, and its final price was set at 5,980 yuan/mt, providing no significant boost to the market.

Under the loose supply-demand balance, short-term SiMn is likely to continue its weak, consolidative trend. Future attention should remain on the cost side and fluctuations in the futures.