Nonfarm Payrolls Miss Boosted Precious Metals, Spot Premiums Traded Near Lower End [SMM Daily Review]

Today, SMM's 10:00 AM price for the Shanghai Gold Exchange Ag(T+D) was 15,155 yuan/kg, with the premium/discount range quoted at parity to +20 yuan/kg against the TD contract, averaging +10 yuan/kg.

On the macro front, US June nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000, far below expectations of 113,000, and the April-May figures were revised down by a combined 74,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, the lowest since June 2025. The significantly weaker-than-expected jobs data substantially cooled expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, sending the US dollar index to a two-week low and sparking a strong rebound in precious metals. Gold reclaimed the $4,100 level, and silver recovered $60/oz. Next Wednesday (July 9), the US Fed will release the June meeting minutes, with markets watching for officials' latest remarks on the rate hike path.

Spot market, after the silver price rebound, demand-side performance was weak, and market offers kept a premium structure. Early-morning quotes in Shanghai were mostly concentrated at TD+5 to +20 yuan/kg, with some suppliers quoting higher but buying interest subdued. In Shenzhen, quotes were mostly around TD parity to +10 yuan/kg, with cheap supply appearing through bank channels, and the transaction center tilted to the low end. Today, the market's premium/discount quote against the most-traded SHFE 2608 contract was a discount of 20-30 yuan/kg.

Overall, the surprisingly weak nonfarm payrolls data provided a short-term lift for precious metals, but the direction of US Fed rate hikes has not clearly turned. At the start of the month, the spot market direction remains unclear; today's transactions were generally skewed to the low end, and spot trade remained within a range from parity to a slight premium.