Lithium Ore:
This week, the transaction center of spodumene prices edged up, and the overall trend strengthened in tandem with spot lithium carbonate prices. The recent rebound in lithium carbonate prices has buoyed sentiment on the ore side, weakening the willingness to sell low-priced resources. Some suppliers have become more inclined to hold prices firm, and both quotes and the transaction center of spodumene concentrates have seen some upward exploration. From a fundamental perspective, downstream material and battery cell production schedules remain at relatively good levels. Lithium chemical plants continue with just-in-time procurement of raw materials, and some plants, having depleted their inventories, have phased restocking needs, providing support for ore prices. On the supply side, the short-term pace of overseas ore arrivals has not yet shown a clear concentrated surge. In particular, the release of circulating resources from African mines such as those in Zimbabwe remains relatively limited. The reduction in tradable low-priced cargoes has further strengthened the upside elasticity of ore prices. In summary, the current rise in lithium ore prices is more driven by sentiment transmission following the lithium chemical price rebound and tight spot circulation. However, lithium chemical plants' acceptance of high ore prices still depends on the sustainability of spot lithium carbonate transactions and the recovery of smelting profits. Spodumene prices are expected to hold up well in the short term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to spot lithium carbonate trading volumes, the sustainability of restocking by lithium chemical plants, and the actual pace of overseas ore arrivals.
Lithium Carbonate:
This week, spot lithium carbonate prices bottomed out and then consolidated to the upside. The futures market performed strongly. The price range of the most-traded contract, the 2609 contract, rebounded sharply from 145,300–154,700 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week to 162,200–167,800 yuan/mt, hitting a weekly high of 167,800 yuan/mt. The weekly gain was about 8.4%. Market sentiment was clearly divided between the upstream and downstream. Upstream lithium chemical plants continued to hold prices firm and hold back from selling, showing low willingness to sell below 170,000 yuan/mt. Some enterprises remained willing to maintain high prices supported by costs. Downstream material plants had largely finished their month-end stockpiling for the next month. As prices consolidated upward, procurement was mainly just-in-time, with cautious restocking intent and still limited acceptance of high-priced cargoes. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions were relatively stable but thin, and the spot-futures price spread strengthened slightly. On the supply side, production dropped significantly, reinforcing expectations of a supply contraction. This week, lithium carbonate production decreased sharply, mainly because the circulation of spodumene and lepidolite raw materials was relatively tight, and some lithium chemical plants had maintenance plans, resulting in a large reduction in spodumene-based output. Salt lake and recycling-based output maintained steady growth. Multiple bullish factors on the supply side converged to drive the price rebound. First, tightening raw material supply tightened spot spodumene concentrate circulation, and combined with maintenance plans at some lithium chemical plants, expectations of near-term supply contraction intensified. Second, imports showed signs of a phased decline: Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China fell 40.8% MoM in May, and subsequent domestic import arrivals are expected to decrease. Demand side, the downstream production schedule growth rate in July was notable, staying high. China's lithium carbonate supply-demand balance is expected to show significant destocking in July. Looking ahead, short-term lithium carbonate prices may hold up well, but upside room should be viewed cautiously. Short-term lithium prices are expected to consolidate in the range of 160,000-170,000 yuan/mt. Close attention should be paid to Jiangxi mine license renewal progress, the pace of Zimbabwe lithium ore arrivals at ports, downstream acceptance of high prices, and the retreat from highs in warrant holdings.
Lithium Hydroxide:
This week, lithium hydroxide recovered notably overall.Driven by improving downstream demand, lithium market sentiment recovered somewhat this week, and lithium prices rebounded sharply. Most enterprises maintained relatively normal production and showed increased willingness to quote, largely in the range of 150,000-170,000 yuan/mt; for traders, most current quotations were around a discount of 15,000-18,000 yuan/mt to the September lithium carbonate futures, continuing a slight strengthening trend compared to earlier, with basic prices at 135,000-140,000 yuan/mt; Among downstream material plants, some enterprises recorded good monthly orders, and in addition to using long-term contracts and customer-supplied materials, they made small purchases to match downstream orders, with transactions in the 140,000-150,000 yuan/mt range. This week's transactions were somewhat sluggish, and short-term prices will fluctuate at highs.
Refined Cobalt:
This week, spot refined cobalt stopped falling and rebounded.Supply side, mainstream smelters' EXW prices fell then rose during the week, currently stabilizing at 385,000 yuan/mt; after the market stabilized, traders resumed offering, with the spot-futures price spread running at parity to a 10,000 yuan/mt premium. Demand side, boosted by DRC-related news, downstream terminal inquiry interest picked up slightly, and weekly transactions improved somewhat WoW, but deals were mostly rigid demand stockpiling in advance, with no visible genuine end-user recovery yet. Short-term downstream demand support is insufficient, and combined with high industry inventory, futures are likely to consolidate. The refined cobalt price recovery rally still requires upstream categories such as cobalt intermediate products and cobalt sulphate to rise and lead the way.
Intermediate Products:
This week, the cobalt intermediate product market saw sluggish trading, with futures prices staying stable overall.Mid-week, the DRC government announced the withdrawal of miners' unexported quotas from H1 2026, greatly boosting market long-term bullish sentiment. Supported by this, mainstream miners held firm offers around the $25.5/lb level, while some traders' lowest shipment prices for small batch cargoes stabilized near $24/lb. Currently, the cobalt salt market valuation is running low; based on cobalt salt spot prices, downstream smelters' acceptable raw material purchase price is only around $23/lb. The price spread between buyers and sellers is significant, and the actual market transaction is stagnant. In the short term, demand support from the downstream smelting sector remains weak, and intermediate product prices will most likely continue moving sideways. A subsequent breakout and strengthening would require procurement demand to pick up after cobalt salt valuations recover.
Cobalt salts (cobalt sulphate and cobalt chloride):
The cobalt sulphate market remained sluggish this week, with prices stopping falling and stabilizing.Supply side, primary smelters' quotes remained generally firm, with mainstream enterprises holding their minimum acceptable selling prices firmly at the 85,000 yuan/mt level. Boosted by DRC policy news mid-week, market pessimism was repaired, some recycling smelters and traders showed reduced willingness to cut prices and offload, and quotes for low-priced material were raised from 80,000–81,000 yuan/mt last week to 82,000–83,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, there was no significant recovery yet. Downstream enterprises generally operated under a produce-based-on-sales model and mostly used monthly average pricing for settlement. To avoid risks from point-to-point purchase-sales price spreads, most enterprises maintained a wait-and-see stance in early July, and substantial restocking was likely delayed until mid to late July. In the short term, cobalt sulphate prices will mainly consolidate, and any sustained market recovery still awaits the materialization of downstream concentrated restocking demand.
The cobalt chloride market remained sluggish this week, with increased inquiries but still very few actual transactions. On Tuesday, the DRC announced the cancellation of unused quotas for Q2 2026, which caused only slight market fluctuations that morning and calmed down in the afternoon, indicating that market focus has shifted from supply-side disruptions to fundamentals, demand, and inventory conditions. However, from a fundamental perspective, there is significant resistance to a price rebound, and the market remains relatively pessimistic in the short term. Supply side, smelters' quotes began to stabilize, and some even slightly raised quotes to test the market; however, despite increased downstream inquiries, actual execution was limited, and July prices will only be meaningful once representative transactions emerge. Demand side, the "rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn" sentiment dominated purchasing decisions, with downstream players still observing whether the current stabilization is a pause in the downtrend or a true bottom, fostering a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Overall, prices are expected to remain largely stable in the short term with limited further downside room.
Cobalt salts (Co3O4):
The Co3O4 market remained extremely sluggish this week, with very few actual transactions.Supply side, the interim report window had passed, and previously bearish enterprises had largely completed their shipments. After phased selling pressure eased, quotes tended to stabilize this week. Demand side, although the traditional procurement window had opened, downstream cathode material plants remained mainly wait-and-see amid sustained price pressure, continuing to push for lower prices, and the persistently low prices further dampened upstream willingness to sell. Overall, the future trend of Co3O4 will still depend on the price direction of cobalt salts, and in the short term it will mainly follow cobalt chloride in moving sideways narrowly.
Nickel Sulphate:
As of Thursday this week, the SMM average price for battery-grade nickel sulphate declined. Demand side, on one hand, the sharp drop in nickel prices has not shown clear relief, dampening downstream enterprises' confidence in restocking; on the other hand, during the mid-year reporting period in June, downstream enterprises generally had a strong willingness to control inventories, leading to inventory buildup at some precursor enterprises. Restocking sentiment was weak in July, and acceptance of nickel salt prices was relatively low. Supply side, MHP payables and auxiliary material prices remained high, with some producers still quoting at elevated levels, though others released finished product inventories. Looking ahead, tight supply expectations for nickel sulphate raw materials have yet to improve, and attention should be paid to the cost support from nickel prices and intermediate products for nickel salt prices. On the inventory front, this week, the upstream nickel salt smelter inventory index fell from 8.2 days to 9.7 days, the downstream precursor plant inventory index rose from 9.9 days to 12.3 days, and the integrated enterprise inventory index increased from 7.0 days to 8.1 days. In terms of transaction strength, this week, the upstream nickel salt smelter Willingness to Sell Sentiment Factor remained at 1.8, the downstream precursor plant Purchase Sentiment Factor stayed at 2.5, and the integrated enterprise sentiment factor held at 2.4. (Historical data can be accessed via the database.)
Ternary Cathode Precursor:
This week, ternary cathode precursor prices weakened. Nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate prices declined somewhat, while manganese sulphate prices edged up.
On discounts, for July and Q3 orders, given the relative tightness of sulphate raw materials, some producers showed a willingness to raise discounts. For long-term contracts, some were agreed at the beginning of the year, and coefficients have not yet been raised. For quarterly contracts, downstream acceptance of coefficient increases was similarly weak. For spot orders, nickel and cobalt payables for some consumer-related spot orders rose in June, but given the recent relatively weak performance of nickel and cobalt salt prices, payables for July orders have not been further lifted.
On production, top-tier producers continued to see strong export orders this month, with production schedules at relatively high levels. However, some producers reduced operating rates due to finished product inventory buildup caused by downstream mid-year inventory control.
Looking ahead, sulphate prices have pulled back overall recently, and future new order prices will depend on the pace of downstream restocking in Q3.
Ternary Cathode Material:
This week, ternary cathode material prices rebounded slightly. From the raw material side, nickel sulphate prices continued to decline, cobalt sulphate and manganese sulphate prices held steady, and lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices entered an upward phase. On transaction sentiment, since lithium chemical prices were at low levels during the drifting lower in the previous two weeks, producers had largely completed restocking. After the price rebound this week, there was no new restocking demand, and transactions were sluggish. Meanwhile, it was early in the month, and the market primarily focused on executing existing orders. Regarding discounts, there was no notable change in both the EV and consumer markets recently. Absolute prices of nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate declined; precursor plants remained firm on discounts, but cathode plants showed very limited acceptance of discount increases. Additionally, current raw material inventory was sufficient with no urgent purchase demand. Discounts are expected to undergo a period of negotiation. Demand side, terminal orders in the EV market were strong in July, with the domestic and European automotive markets continuing to improve, keeping demand from battery cell manufacturers high. Top-tier ternary cathode producers maintained a rapid production pace. Demand in the consumer and small power markets remained mediocre.
LFP:
This week, LFP prices rose overall, influenced by higher lithium carbonate prices, up around 2,500 yuan/mt. The SMM lithium carbonate price increased by roughly 10,000 yuan/mt cumulatively this week. Regarding processing fees, some small and medium-sized battery cell manufacturers in the market have started linking iron phosphate prices to settle with cathode plants. However, top-tier and second-tier cell manufacturers were still observing, though their overall attitude was not opposed to the linkage method; it just requires more time for negotiation. According to the SMM survey, even if top-tier cell manufacturers have not yet adopted a linkage to iron phosphate, they might increase processing fees indirectly through periodic lump-sum price adjustments or by supplying sulphur, but cathode plants remained more eager to raise actual processing fees. Production side, overall LFP market production remained stable this week. According to SMM survey, many enterprises will continue to ramp up production at new production lines in July with incremental orders; combined with the completion of maintenance at some production lines, overall production will return to normal levels. A significant production increase is expected beginning next week. Inventory side, some enterprises experienced situations where orders exceeded production capacity, maintaining destocking levels. Demand side, overall orders increased somewhat in June; orders are expected to grow further in July, mainly from commercial vehicles and the ESS sector.
Iron Phosphate:
This week, the SMM iron phosphate price rose by around 400 yuan/mt . Currently, upstream and downstream players are still negotiating July orders, with intense bargaining. Some settled new orders landed at prices roughly 15,300 to 15,500 yuan/mt. For this month overall, the market quotation for non-phosphoric-acid-process products was around 15,500 yuan/mt, while phosphoric-acid-process product quotations were roughly 16,000 yuan/mt, both up 1,000 yuan/mt from the previous month. This month saw exceptionally intense disagreement between upstream and downstream players, mainly bargaining over whether prices for the ammonia method should rise. Raw material side, June phosphoric acid quotations edged up slightly, but actual market transaction prices did not increase. Ferrous sulphate prices decreased notably, with a current market price of about 800 yuan/mt. Monoammonium phosphate (MAP) prices remained stable. Although upstream producers intended to raise prices, price increases proved difficult due to price controls and low purchase willingness from downstream iron phosphate enterprises; the market price was about 7,500 yuan/mt. Production side, LFP producers broadly maintained stable operations this week, but with overall capacity limited, the production increase in July was modest, constrained by downstream demand.
LCO:
The LCO market continued its previous trajectory this week. Price changes for lithium carbonate and Co3O4 led to a slight downward correction in LCO quotations, yet the price cuts did not effectively stimulate a surge in transaction volumes. Demand side remained sluggish, with no notable improvement in downstream orders. Amid unstable raw material prices, buyers largely adopted a wait-and-see stance, limiting actual purchases to rigid spot orders and lacking large-scale transactions. Currently, both sellers and buyers are in a phase of awaiting clearer direction. Future market movement will depend on upstream raw material cost changes and whether a material recovery in downstream restocking pace can occur.
Anode:
Domestic artificial graphite anode prices remained generally stable this week. Cost side, earlier pressures have gradually been digested, but the industry's overall profitability remains low. Demand side, downstream orders are steadily recovering. First- and second-tier enterprises' own integrated capacity has struggled to match the order increase, tightening the supply of spot finished products. Supported by thin profits and tighter cargo availability, artificial graphite prices were relatively firm. For natural graphite, downstream purchasing demand was weak, and buyers commonly pushed for lower prices. At this stage, industry profits are near the break-even line, producers have no room for further price concessions, and market prices have fallen into a stalemate.
Looking ahead, the tight supply-demand pattern for artificial graphite may intensify further, laying the groundwork for a steady price rise. Natural graphite, constrained by weak end-use demand, will see transaction prices sticking close to cost lines, and is most likely to maintain a sideways consolidation trend in the short term.
Separator:
The separator market edged up slightly this week overall. Looking at specific quotations, high-end wet-process separator prices were firm: 5μm (5μ+2μ) quotations were 1.56-1.86 yuan/m², mainstream quotations for 7μm (7μ+2μ) were 1.138-1.337 yuan/m², and those for 9μm (9μ+3μ) were 1.13-1.285 yuan/m². Supply side, current separator capacity release is still dominated by upgrades on individual production lines, with new capacity not yet being commissioned on a large scale, so the overall increment is limited. Constrained by this, industry supply elasticity is insufficient to match the persistently robust downstream demand pace. Demand side, terminal production schedules in July 2026 increased by about 7% MoM, with high prosperity sustained in both the power battery and ESS sectors. Top-tier battery cell enterprises maintained high operating rates, ensuring stable separator procurement demand. Boosted by this, July separator production increased by 3.71% MoM, but production growth still lagged end-use demand growth, leaving a supply-demand gap. Against this backdrop, separator enterprises enjoyed good order visibility, with top-tier players running at full capacity and second- and third-tier enterprises also raising their operating rates, resulting in an overall state of undersupply. Looking ahead, new capacity release is expected to remain limited in the short term, while downstream demand stays strong, which is likely to provide support for separator prices. However, attention should be paid to the pace of concentrated new capacity release in H2 and battery cell manufacturers' acceptance of price increases due to cost pressure, which may affect the room for and sustainability of subsequent price rises.
Electrolyte
Electrolyte prices stabilized temporarily this week. Cost side, spot lithium carbonate prices saw a notable rise this week. However, the overall supply-demand pattern for the LiPF6 industry is currently trending towards balance, and downstream electrolyte producers exhibited strong wait-and-see sentiment with a weak willingness to stockpile and purchase, causing LiPF6 transaction prices to continue their slight downward trend. The additive segment's performance showed strong resilience; influenced by a tight overall supply-demand balance, various additive producers generally maintained firm high quotations, some electrolyte plants passively accepted moderate price increases, and the transaction price center for mainstream additives like VC and FEC shifted upward. As raw material price changes offset each other, electrolyte prices remained generally stable this week. Regarding supply and demand, July saw robust new orders for passenger NEVs, and the accelerating penetration rate of commercial vehicle electrification significantly boosted power battery cell demand. The ESS sector's demand also maintained a steady growth trend. Downstream end-use demand continued to improve, driving a steady rise in domestic battery cell operating rates, with auxiliary electrolyte production demand increasing simultaneously. The industry’s overall production has an upward expectation. Overall, the future market price trend of electrolyte still requires continuous tracking of its raw material price fluctuations and their transmission.
Sodium-ion battery:
This week, NFPP cathode production capacity for sodium-ion batteries remained in a state of undersupply, with mainstream enterprises essentially operating at zero inventory, shipping products immediately upon completion. In June, top-tier producer shipments reached hundreds of mt; if new lines are commissioned, capacity can be further released to achieve full production and full sales. Price stratification was evident, prices remained stable in the short term, and the long-term trend will depend on raw material price increases. Hard carbon anode was also somewhat tight, with production capacity efficiency limited and deliveries sometimes delayed. New capacity is expected to come onstream successively in H2, with high-end low-temperature cycling products commanding higher quotations. The anode market has already shown characteristics of a seller's market, and the tightness for high-end products is expected to persist in H2. At the battery cell end, the toll processing model is relatively common, but toll manufacturers' quality control varies, with some products needing rework that adds costs; market transparency needs improvement. Expectations for a market volume increase in July and August of H2 are clear, and industry confidence is relatively ample.
Recycling:
Raw material side, lithium carbonate prices rose somewhat this week, while nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate prices continued to fall. This week, analyzed by ternary/LCO and LFP material types: LFP wet process end, taking LFP electrode black mass as an example, at this stage, LFP electrode black mass prices were 6,800-7,200 yuan/mtu, with prices edging up WoW from last Thursday. This was mainly because lithium carbonate prices held up well last Friday, further leading to a slight correction in LFP black mass prices. LFP battery black mass prices were currently 6,400-6,600 yuan/mtu, with the price spread against electrode black mass gradually widening. This was mainly due to the active production of several LFP repair enterprises, which primarily purchase LFP electrodes, broadening the demand domain for waste LFP electrodes. Therefore, some LFP wet process enterprises switched to purchasing LFP battery black mass or paid extra to buy LFP electrode black mass. For the ternary and LCO end, nickel and cobalt payables for ternary electrode black mass were around 77-79%. This week, the downstream market broadly purchased on demand; although lithium chemicals rose, nickel salt and cobalt salt prices continued to fall, so overall payables stabilized temporarily. Cobalt and lithium payables for pure cobalt and high-cobalt scrap materials stabilized temporarily; continuous cobalt sulphate price drops, coupled with cold downstream LCO cathode plant demand, meant that upstream wet process enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm was mediocre.
Downstream and Terminal:
This week, DC-side battery cabin prices were stable, with the average price for a 5MWh DC side at 0.455 yuan/Wh, and prices for 3.44/3.72MWh units at 0.44 yuan/Wh. The EPC for the 400MW/800MWh standalone ESS frequency regulation station project in Taiyuan, Shanxi: Sinohydro Bureau 14 Co., Ltd. was the first-ranked bid candidate, with a bid price of 1.23 yuan/Wh. This project is a grid-side standalone ESS frequency regulation demonstration project, located in Xinghualing District, Taiyuan City, designed with a 0.5C C-rate.
News:
[Sinomine Resource Group: Expects the company's annual lithium salt production and sales will not be materially adversely affected by the temporary production suspension for maintenance] Sinomine Resource Group issued an unusual movement announcement stating that the deviation in its stock trading closing prices exceeded 20% cumulatively over three consecutive trading days. The company disclosed the "Announcement on the Temporary Production Suspension and Maintenance of a Wholly-Owned Subsidiary" on July 1, 2026. The temporary suspension and maintenance will reduce the company's lithium chemical production in the short term. However, in the long term, as downstream lithium chemical demand is robust, once the company’s self-produced lithium concentrates arrive at the plants, measures such as arranging production at lithium chemical plants and selling some lithium concentrates can be taken to improve production and sales. The company expects its annual lithium chemical production and sales will not be materially adversely affected by this temporary production suspension and maintenance. (Jinshi Data APP)
[BYD Energy Storage signs contract for Poland's largest energy storage project] Recently, BYD Energy Storage signed a cooperation agreement with Greenvolt Power to jointly develop the Siedlce energy storage project in Poland. The project has a total capacity of 600MW/2.4GWh and will become Poland's largest battery energy storage project upon completion. Prior to this, the cumulative cooperation capacity between the two parties on two local projects had already reached 1.6GWh. The Siedlce project is planned to commence construction in Q3 2026 and is expected to enter commercial operation before the end of 2027. (Jinshi Data APP)
[Mandatory National Standard "Intelligent and Connected Vehicles - Safety Requirements for Combined Driver Assistance Systems" Officially Issued] On June 27, 2026, the mandatory national standard "Intelligent and Connected Vehicles - Safety Requirements for Combined Driver Assistance Systems" (GB47955—2026), organized and formulated by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, was approved and issued by the State Administration for Market Regulation and the National Standardization Administration, and is planned to be formally implemented on January 1, 2027. The issuance and implementation of the "Safety Requirements for Combined Driver Assistance Systems" provides clear and unified safety specifications for combined driver assistance systems, which is of great significance for enhancing the safety level of intelligent and connected vehicles and ensuring the healthy and sustainable development of the industry. Going forward, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will conscientiously carry out the standard's publicizing and implementation, strengthen the product access management for intelligent and connected vehicles, further consolidate enterprise safety primary responsibilities, and ensure the safe and compliant application of combined driver assistance systems. Meanwhile, it will accelerate the release and implementation of other mandatory national standards, such as those for automated driving systems, promote the construction of a comprehensive standard testing and regulatory system for intelligent and connected vehicles, accelerate the industrialization process of automated driving technology, and lead the high-quality development of China's intelligent and connected vehicle industry.
SMM New Energy Research Team
Cong Wang 021-51666838
Rui Ma 021-51595780
Ziya Lin 86-2151666902
Disheng Feng 021-51666714
Yanlin Lyu 021-20707875
Zhicheng Zhou 021-51666711
Zihan Wang 021-51666914
Jie Wang 021-51595902
Haohan Zhang 021-51666752
Bolin Chen 021-51666836
Mengqi Xu 021-20707868
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