Futures:
Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,866/mt. After opening, prices initially drifted lower, continuously dipping to an intraday low of $1,858/mt. Once bearish momentum at the low was exhausted, concentrated buying interest rushed in, pushing prices to rebound quickly. During the session, prices surged sharply to hit an intraday high of $1,880.5/mt. Near the close, bulls took profits, and prices pulled back slightly, finally settling at $1,868.5/mt, up $2/mt or 0.11%.
Overnight, the SHFE lead 2608 contract opened at 15,790 yuan/mt. After opening, it quickly raced to an intraday high of 15,895 yuan/mt, then bulls’ upward momentum waned. Bears stepped in gradually to pressure the futures, and prices drifted lower, touching a low of 15,785 yuan/mt. After falling to low levels, some bargain-hunting buying interest emerged, leading to a minor rebound and recovery. It finally settled at 15,850 yuan/mt, up 85 yuan/mt or 0.54%. Total trading volume was 26,476 lots, and open interest reached 93,966 lots.
On the macro front:
US June nonfarm payrolls came in below market expectations. Trump: Will continue to push for the removal of Governor Cook by “winning the lawsuit.” Trump: Micron is red-hot, and we must lead in AI. Sources say the next round of US-Iran talks will be held on July 18. OpenAI reportedly offered a 5% equity stake to the Trump administration. Meta: The development of AI agents has not “accelerated as expected.” The CSRC approved Unitree Robotics’ IPO registration application on the STAR Market. Media: There are errors in Meta’s “essay.”
Spot market fundamentals:
The decline in SHFE lead slowed. Suppliers actively sold, and spot premiums in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai market were lowered from yesterday. For EXW cargoes from primary lead smelters, suppliers sold along with the market, and quotes in mainstream production areas were around parity with the SMM #1 lead average price for EXW delivery. In the secondary lead sector, increasing production cuts and shutdowns at smelters reduced spot market circulation, leading to scarce and chaotic quotations. Some secondary refined lead was quoted at -25~+75 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price for EXW delivery. Downstream enterprises maintained a wait-and-see sentiment, with only a few purchasing as needed. Inquiries were also limited, and spot market transactions showed no improvement so far.
Inventory: As of July 2, LME lead inventory fell by 1,450 mt to 294,450 mt. As of July 2, total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions increased to 72,500 mt, up 1,300 mt from July 1.
Lead price forecast today:
On July 2, the SMM #1 lead ingot average price was 15,725 yuan/mt, down 4.26% cumulatively from early June, falling to a stage low. In the short term, lead prices are expected to drift lower: expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, weak off-season end-user demand, and high LME inventories are weighing on prices; while widespread losses and production cuts among secondary lead producers, along with tight scrap battery supply, provide cost support. Going forward, the focus will be on monitoring storage battery procurement, scrap battery supply and lead ingot imports, and it is expected that lead prices will remain in the doldrums in the short term.
![A Lead Mine in South China Releases Q3 Tender Price]](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/EhsCj20251217171721.jpeg)
