Domestic Ore Prices Rise, While High-Level Negotiations Continue as Imported Ore Annual Contracts Remain Pending [SMM Weekly Bauxite Review]

SMM July 2:

Domestic bauxite:

Supply disruptions pushed up domestic ore prices; alumina enterprises' long-term contract procurement prices rose overall

Affected by events related to Shanxi coking coal, mining at main domestic bauxite production areas like Shanxi and Henan faced certain disruptions in the short term, leading to phased changes in ore supply. Driven by expectations of supply tightening, the price center of domestic ore edged up slightly. Meanwhile, alumina prices remained at relatively high levels, and alumina enterprises had moderate tolerance for raw material price increases, mainly passively accepting current ore prices in the short term. As of today, in Shanxi, bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5 and 60% alumina content, excluding VAT, EXW crusher plant transaction prices were approximately 530-550 yuan/mt, with the average price up 10 yuan/mt MoM; in Henan, bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5 and 60% alumina content, excluding VAT, EXW crusher plant transaction prices were around 500-540 yuan/mt, with the average price up 20 yuan/mt MoM; in Guiyang, bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6 and 60% alumina content, including VAT, EXW price was 490-540 yuan/mt, with the average price up 20 yuan/mt MoM; in Guangxi, bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6 and 53% alumina content, excluding VAT, EXW crusher plant transaction prices were 320-335 yuan/mt.

Imported bauxite:

Guinea shipments pulled back alongside pending long-term contracts, with imported ore prices consolidating at highs

According to data as of June 26, weekly port departures of bauxite from Guinea's main ports totaled 3.3834 million mt, down 409,200 mt from the previous week, with shipments pulling back. Ocean freight rates from Guinea to China fell to a range of $30-32/mt, with the lowest quote at $29/mt. Although ocean freight rates declined significantly from the previous $36/mt, market feedback generally indicated difficulty in securing shipping schedules and matching prices. With quota policies yet to be implemented and negotiations on July long-term contract prices still ongoing, coupled with the impact of Guinea's traditional rainy season, the market returned to a wait-and-see sentiment, and Guinean mines continued to control bauxite shipments. As for Australia, as of June 26, weekly port departures of bauxite from Australia's main ports totaled 1.0058 million mt, down 224,200 mt from the previous week. Attention should be paid to the shipment pace of Australian mines and changes in port departures. As of June 26, port arrivals of bauxite in China totaled 4.7276 million mt, down 666,900 mt from the previous week. Continuous attention is needed on the impact of high and fluctuating oil prices and ocean freight rates on forward arrival pace and landed costs.

Price, there was still no news on the Guinean long-term contract price for July, with sources indicating that negotiations on the relevant long-term contract price were still underway. Meanwhile, domestic alumina refinery bauxite inventories remained high. This week, alumina refinery bauxite inventories were relatively stable, with days of inventories at around 95 days, exerting some top pressure on ore prices. For Guinean bauxite, ocean freight rates for spot cargoes to China began to pull back, but with market rumors that the Guinean quota policy was about to be implemented, the price tug-of-war between buyers and sellers continued. Guinean bauxite prices continued to consolidate at highs. As of Thursday this week, the FOB quote for Guinean bauxite was $38-40/mt, with the average price flat compared to last Thursday; the CIF price for Guinean bauxite was reported at $70-72/mt, with the average price flat compared to last Thursday; the SMM imported bauxite index price was reported at $69.98/mt, up $0.02/mt from last Thursday. Going forward, bauxite prices will still depend on various factors including mine costs, Guinea's traditional rainy season, the negotiation of the Guinean long-term contract price for July, and the impact of the Guinean government's bauxite export quota policy on overall shipments. SMM will continue to closely monitor bauxite market trends and transaction activities.

Overall, domestic ore market prices maintained current levels; meanwhile, domestic alumina refinery inventories remained high (around 95 days), and the price tug-of-war between buyers and sellers continued. The uncertainty of Guinea's July long-term contract price and quota policy, together with the traditional rainy season, also put some upward pressure on bauxite costs. In the short term, due to reduced shipments caused by the dual impact of costs and policy, imported ore prices are expected to continue the high-level consolidation pattern. Going forward, the key focus will be on the implementation of Guinea's quota policy and ocean freight rate trends.