Alumina Price Gains Narrow, and After Regional Mismatch Eases, Spot Alumina Center Under Pressure Pulls Back [SMM Alumina Weekly Review]

SMM July 2 –

Price review: As of Thursday this week, the SMM alumina index stood at 2,693.19 yuan/mt, up 11.9 yuan/mt from last Thursday. Shandong was quoted at 2,770–2,830 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from last Thursday; Henan was quoted at 2,790–2,850 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from last Thursday; Shanxi was quoted at 2,800–2,870 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from last Thursday; Guangxi was quoted at 2,630–2,730 yuan/mt, flat from last Thursday; Guizhou was quoted at 2,760–2,800 yuan/mt, flat from last Thursday.

Markets outside China: As of July 2, 2026, FOB Western Australia alumina priced at $330/mt, with ocean freight at $32.3/mt and the USD/CNY selling rate near 6.80. This translates to an approximate delivered-to-China-main-port price of around 2,865.02 yuan/mt, a premium of 90.37 yuan/mt over the alumina index. One overseas spot alumina transaction was reported this week, details as follows:

(1) On June 25, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina were traded overseas at $330/mt FOB Western Australia, for August shipment.

Chinese market: According to SMM data, as of Thursday this week, China’s total built capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina stood at 118.42 million mt/year, with operating capacity at 87.95 million mt/year. The national weekly alumina operating rate fell 0.23 percentage points WoW to 74.27%. Shandong’s weekly operating rate rose 0.95 percentage points to 89.31%; Shanxi’s rate rose 0.41 percentage points to 64.31%; Henan’s rate fell 3.5 percentage points WoW to 56.83%; Guangxi’s rate rose 0.43 percentage points WoW to 76.13%; Guizhou’s rate rose 3.13 percentage points WoW to 81%.

Spot market: Two transactions were concluded this week. Xinjiang procured 10,000 mt of spot alumina at a delivered price of around 3,135 yuan/mt. Gansu procured spot alumina at a delivered price of 3,000 yuan/mt.

As of Thursday this week, while alumina prices continued to trend higher, gains had noticeably narrowed, with prices showing signs of weakness over the past two days. The overall center of spot transaction prices continued to shift lower. Inventory: According to SMM, China’s total alumina inventory edged up 1,000 mt WoW to 7.015 million mt, with overall changes relatively small. Structurally, aluminum smelter raw material inventory fell 47,000 mt to 3.364 million mt, mainly as elevated spot alumina prices prompted some smelters to actively draw down high-cost in-factory inventory, leading to a decline. Alumina refinery in-factory inventory rose slightly by 2,000 mt to 1.231 million mt, as maintenance-related production cuts in Shanxi were offset by production increases in south China, resulting in limited overall change. Ports, new vessels arrived successively, and this week port inventory increased by 31,000 mt to 891,000 mt. Warrant inventory, affected by invoicing issues and the spread between futures and spot prices, saw weakened willingness to ship to delivery warehouse, decreasing by 9,000 mt to 263,000 mt. In-transit and platform inventory increased by 23,000 mt to 1.267 million mt, mainly due to warrants gradually maturing and converting to spot, coupled with continuous shipments from Guangxi, leading to some accumulation of in-transit cargoes. Overall, the operating pattern of alumina is expected to change little next week. Some enterprises using domestic ore may schedule maintenance due to ore supply issues, but the impact on monthly production will be limited, and overall inventory will remain at current levels. Prices, as the regional alumina mismatch gradually eases, the spot price center is expected to pull back, and the subsequent trend will tend to be under pressure.

[Data other than publicly available information are based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]