Refined Cobalt:
This week, refined cobalt spot prices stopped falling and rebounded. Supply side, EXW prices from mainstream smelters fell first then rose during the week, currently stable at 385,000 yuan/mt. After the market stabilized, traders resumed offering, with the spot-futures price spread running at parity to a premium of 10,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, buoyed by news from the DRC, downstream end-user inquiry interest modestly picked up. Transactions during the week slightly improved WoW, but most were advance stockpiling for rigid demand, and a substantive recovery in end-user demand has yet to materialize. In the short term, insufficient downstream demand support, coupled with high industry inventory, suggests futures prices will likely consolidate mainly. The refined cobalt price recovery still requires the rise of upstream categories such as cobalt intermediate products and cobalt sulphate to drive it.
Cobalt Intermediate Products:
This week, the cobalt intermediate products market was sluggish, with futures prices remaining generally stable. Mid-week, the DRC government announced the withdrawal of miners' unexported quotas for H1 2026, greatly boosting long-term bullish sentiment. Supported by this, offers from mainstream miners held firm at $25.5/lb, while some traders with small lots kept their lowest shipment prices at around $24/lb. Currently, cobalt salt market valuations are running at low levels. Back-calculating from cobalt salt spot prices, the acceptable raw material purchase price for downstream smelters is only around $23/lb, resulting in a significant price gap between buyers and sellers and a stalemate in actual transactions. In the short term, weak demand support from the downstream smelting sector means intermediate product prices are likely to continue moving sideways. A subsequent market breakout and strengthening will depend on cobalt salt valuation recovery driving procurement demand.
Cobalt Sulphate:
This week, the cobalt sulphate market remained sluggish, with prices stopping falling and stabilizing. Supply side, offers from primary smelters were firm overall, with mainstream companies holding their minimum intended shipment price at 85,000 yuan/mt. Buoyed by DRC policy news in mid-week, market pessimism was repaired, and some recycling smelters and traders reduced their willingness to cut prices and sell off cargo. Low-priced cargo offers were raised from 80,000-81,000 yuan/mt last week to 82,000-83,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, no significant recovery has been seen. Downstream enterprises generally adopted a produce-based-on-sales model, and product settlement mostly uses a monthly average price mechanism. To avoid the risk of point-in-time purchase-sales price spreads, most enterprises maintained a wait-and-see sentiment in early July, with substantial restocking activities likely postponed to mid-to-late July. In the short term, cobalt sulphate prices will mainly consolidate, and a sustained market recovery still requires downstream concentrated restocking demand to materialize.
SMM New Energy Research Team
Wang Cong 021-51666838
Ma Rui 021-51595780
Feng Disheng 021-51666714
Lyu Yanlin 021-20707875
Xiao Wenhao 021-51666872
Zhang Haohan 021-51666752
Wang Zihan 021-51666914
Wang Jie 021-51595902
Xu Yang 021-51666760
Yang Lianting 021-51595835
Wang Zhaoyu 021-51666827
![[SMM Analysis] Consumer Demand Transmission Hindered, Cobalt Price Rebound Still Under Heavy Pressure](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/akEdZ20251217171728.jpg)
