[SMM Analysis] Lithium Carbonate Prices Continued to Rise, Spot Lithium Carbonate Transactions Saw a Pullback

Today, SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate spot price continued to rise from the previous working day. In the futures market, the lithium carbonate 2609 contract opened lower at 163,500 yuan/mt. After the opening, bulls briefly entered, quickly pushing the price to an intraday high of 167,800 yuan/mt, before encountering selling pressure from bears, causing a consolidation and pullback. During the morning session, the price moved sideways around the average price line, with bulls and bears engaging in a tug-of-war within the 164,000–166,000 yuan/mt range. Around midday, bears concentrated their entry, pushing the price below the average price line, followed by a sustained decline. In the afternoon, the decline accelerated, reaching a low of 162,200 yuan/mt. In the final trading hours, the price rebounded slightly to around 164,000 yuan/mt and consolidated to close, ultimately edging up 0.17% to 164,000 yuan/mt. Open interest decreased by 4,233 lots.

In the spot market, downstream spot orders for procurement were mainly need-based, while upstream spot shipments remained cautious, with a low willingness to sell at levels below 170,000 yuan/mt. Overall, market inquiries and actual transactions were relatively sluggish. This week, lithium carbonate production dropped significantly, mainly due to relatively tight circulation in the spodumene and lepidolite raw material markets, coupled with maintenance plans at some lithium chemical plants, which led to a sharp decline in spodumene-based production. Salt lake and recycling-based output maintained steady growth. From the perspective of actual market transactions and inventory levels, against the backdrop of a fluctuating and downward-shifting price center, lithium chemical plants continued to hold prices firm and hold back from selling spot orders, leaving upstream inventory basically stable. Downstream material plants continued their dip-buying strategy, with a notable increase in purchasing and stockpiling enthusiasm this week, driving up their own inventories. Traders, following the downstream purchasing pace, saw their inventories destock simultaneously. Overall, inventory adjustments diverged across segments, and market trading sentiment heated up.