According to customs data, in May 2026, China's aluminum plate/sheet (tax codes 76061121, 76061129, 76061191, 76061199, 76061220, 76061230, 76061251, 76061259, 76061290, 76069100, 76069200) exports reached 319,900 mt, up 2% MoM and up 15% YoY, extending the recovery trend since the beginning of the year. In May 2026, China's total aluminum foil (tax codes 76071110, 76071120, 76071190, 76071900, 76072000) exports were 119,400 mt, up 4% MoM but down 2% YoY. For the first five months of the year, cumulative aluminum plate/sheet and strip exports rose 13.8% YoY, while cumulative aluminum foil exports still fell 4.6% YoY.
In terms of trade mode, in May 2026, domestic aluminum plate/sheet exports via processing trade with imported materials were approximately 43,000 mt, accounting for 13.4%, and those via processing trade with supplied materials were approximately 5,000 mt, or 1.6%. For aluminum foil, exports via processing trade with imported materials were approximately 18,000 mt, accounting for about 15%, while those via processing trade with supplied materials were roughly 7,000 mt, or 6%.
By country, in May 2026, China's aluminum plate/sheet and strip export ranking: The US replaced Mexico as the top destination with 36,900 mt (12%); Mexico dropped to second place with 30,900 mt (10%); Vietnam ranked third with 27,200 mt (9%); South Korea (18,700 mt, 6%) and Thailand (15,500 mt, 5%) took fourth and fifth place, respectively. The surge in exports to the US directly reflected the order shift triggered by a fire at a North American plant of an aluminum plate/sheet and strip industry leader in Q4 2025. Its hot rolling equipment is expected to restart in July, but the debugging cycle after major repairs and the decision to prioritize restoring the high-margin automotive sheet line create considerable uncertainty over the can stock line's production resumption. Currently, the production schedules for can stock and automotive sheet orders undertaken domestically have been extended to the end of July, providing short-term support for incremental exports.
In May 2026, the top five destinations for China's aluminum foil exports were Thailand (10,200 mt, 8.52%), Indonesia (9,700 mt, 8.16%), Saudi Arabia (8,900 mt, 7.43%), South Korea (8,600 mt, 7.17%), and India (7,600 mt, 6.38%). Notably, exports to the Middle East gradually normalized: shipments to the UAE rebounded from 2,515 mt in March to 5,704 mt in May, and to Saudi Arabia from 4,868 mt to 8,877 mt. It is worth cautioning that although enterprise export order production schedules have been extended to late August, June–August is traditionally an off-season for aluminum foil both in and outside China. Aside from front-loaded export orders, demand for domestic food packaging foil, pharmaceutical foil, and other products has already begun to weaken. To regain the ground lost in 2025 (1.3406 million mt), monthly exports would need to average 112,600 mt in the remaining months. Given narrowing overseas market premiums, demand being front-loaded, and the drag from the off-season, full-year aluminum foil exports are expected to be only around 1.3 million mt.
From the perspective of export economics, profit margins are shrinking rapidly. Since late June, the SHFE/LME price ratio has rapidly recovered, causing the arbitrage window that drove large-scale aluminum semis exports to snap shut, and new orders in some segments have already declined. Against a backdrop of significantly retreating aluminum prices, downstream clients’ willingness to pick up goods has visibly weakened, and stockpiling orders are mostly being delayed in production scheduling. However, fixed-price orders accepted earlier are still being executed as planned. As orders on hand are gradually fulfilled, if export profits cannot recover going forward, aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil exports in H2 could face the risk of volume contraction.
Overall, benefiting from the lingering effects of orders diverted from North America due to wildfires, aluminum plate/sheet, strip exports performed strongly in H1 2026 and are expected to rebound to 3.2 million mt for the full year. For aluminum foil, after the export rush impulse fades, demand faces a cliff drop, and the full-year forecast is maintained at around 1.3 million mt. SMM will also continue to closely track changes in the SHFE/LME price ratio, the actual timing of production resumptions at major North American plate and strip enterprises, and the pace of trade recovery in the Middle East, while watching for downward pressure from a higher-to-lower growth trajectory in exports during H2.
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