Jul 2, 2026 Tin Midday Commentary
The most-traded SHFE tin contract tested the 400,000 level in the night session before pulling back under pressure from the US dollar. It opened at 392,360 yuan/mt and closed the morning session at 394,770 yuan/mt, up 0.15%. On the LME, three-month tin consolidated narrowly, currently trading at $51,310/mt, down 0.02%.
On the macro front:
(1) At the Sintra Global Central Banking Forum on July 1 (local time), Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh publicly stated that the Fed had abandoned forward guidance on interest rates and would shift to a new policy assessment path. He stressed that the 2% inflation target floor would not be loosened, and while inflation has cooled marginally, it remains significantly high. The July FOMC meeting will fully debate rate options, and no clear signal of a rate hike or cut was released. Balance sheet reduction will continue at the original pace.
(2) The US June ADP employment report released on July 2 showed a gain of 98,000 jobs, the lowest since March and below the market expectation of 118,000. Wages rose 4.4% YoY. After the data, the US dollar index briefly rose then pulled back, ending the day 0.2% higher at 101.39, while the 10-year US Treasury yield edged up.
(3) Senior Iranian officials stated that if the current temporary navigation agreement is not renewed upon its expiration in mid-August, Iran will formally charge tolls for commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz and will, if necessary, use channel control measures to safeguard its rights.
In the spot market, trading was relatively calm this morning. As futures prices retested the 400,000 yuan/mt level, a wait-and-see sentiment prevailed. With restocking demand from the earlier price pullback largely met, purchase willingness among buyers at current levels was mediocre.
Overall, the market lacks further strong information cues, and futures prices continue to be driven by overseas macro policies and forward liquidity sentiment. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to swing wildly in the short term.
