Thursday, July 2, 2026
Futures: Overnight LME copper opened at $13,120/mt, dipped to a low of $13,103.5/mt early in the session, then the copper price center drifted higher to test $13,364/mt, followed by wild swings and finally ended at $13,330.5/mt, down 0.37%. Trading volume reached 23,000 lots, and open interest stood at 242,000 lots, down 3,122 lots from the previous trading day, indicating long position reduction. The most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 101,830 yuan/mt, dipped to 101,640 yuan/mt early on, then the price center moved straight up to test a high of 102,930 yuan/mt, before swinging wildly and closing at 102,520 yuan/mt, up 0.07%. Trading volume reached 50,000 lots, and open interest was 154,000 lots, down 286 lots from the previous trading day, suggesting short position reduction.
[SMM Copper Morning Brief] News: (1) US private-sector employment growth slowed in June but extended its streak of gains for the 12th consecutive month, showing that the labour market cooling has not yet turned into a marked deceleration. Data released by ADP Research on Wednesday showed that the US private sector added 98,000 jobs in June, below the 119,000 expected by economists and down from the previous month's increase of 122,000. Although the increase missed expectations, the data still support the judgment that the labour market is stabilizing this year.
(2) The US and Iran held indirect talks in Doha, Qatar, on July 1, with Qatar and Pakistan acting as mediators. The source told Xinhua that the talks focused on implementing the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, including discussions on unfreezing Iranian assets and ensuring maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz. The source said the talks are being conducted indirectly, and the US and Iranian delegations "did not meet face to face, with the mediators coordinating between the two sides."
Spot: (1) Shanghai: On July 1, the SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 102,250 yuan/mt in early trading, quickly declined to a low of 101,870 yuan/mt, then rose sharply to 102,310 yuan/mt, then edged down and mostly traded between 102,000 yuan/mt and 102,280 yuan/mt, before stabilizing and then quickly climbing to a high of 102,620 yuan/mt, with a closing price of 102,530 yuan/mt. The contango spread between the front-month contracts was between 60 yuan/mt and 10 yuan/mt, and the import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2607 contract ranged from a loss of 440 yuan/mt to a loss of 310 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, yesterday was the last trading day of the month, downstream purchasing sentiment kept pulling back, demand-side performance was weak, and after suppliers slightly lowered their quotes, transactions remained sluggish, with overall market trading quiet on both sides. However, some cargoes with invoices dated this month still managed to transact due to demand for invoices, indicating structural demand support. As the new monthly purchasing cycle begins, coupled with relatively low copper prices, downstream restocking demand may be released, consumption is expected to recover marginally, buying and selling sentiment could be boosted, and spot discounts may gradually narrow.
(2) Guangdong: On July 1, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 50 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was at parity, up 90 yuan/mt; and SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, up 90 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,220 yuan/mt, up 140 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,135 yuan/mt, up 160 yuan/mt. Overall, in July, suppliers shifted from lowering prices to holding prices firm, prompting premiums to surge.
(3) Imported copper: On July 1, the average warrant price was up $3/mt from the previous trading day, at $71/mt (price range: $67–75/mt); the average B/L price was up $1/mt from the previous trading day, at $70/mt (price range: $65–75/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price was up $2/mt from the previous trading day, at $43/mt (price range: $39–47/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving from early to mid-July. Downstream inquiry activity was moderate, while suppliers had limited spot cargoes on hand and held firm offers, with differences existing between buyers and sellers, resulting in relatively limited market transactions.
(4) Secondary copper: Today at 11:30, the futures closing price was 102,020 yuan/mt, down 490 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, with spot premiums averaged at 40 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Copper scrap prices fell by 100 yuan/mt from the previous day. The copper scrap sales sentiment index dropped to 2.36, and the purchasing sentiment index rose to 2.48. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,222 yuan/mt, narrowing by 338 yuan/mt from the previous day. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod stood at 160 yuan/mt. According to SMM survey, entering the high-temperature off-season in July, secondary copper rod enterprises reported declining downstream orders; meanwhile, copper prices continued their downward trend, and copper scrap traders held back from selling, keeping copper scrap prices elevated. Consequently, secondary copper rod prices were at a premium of 200-300 yuan/mt to futures, and transactions were extremely sluggish.
Prices: On the macro front, US ADP employment in June added 98,000, below expectations, indicating a cooling labour market; Fed Chairman Wash stated that inflation expectations have declined, the dot plot will be retained in the short term, and he clearly expressed a desire to shrink the balance sheet. In the Middle East, Qatar said progress has been made on the memorandum, Iran expanded oil exports and used unfrozen funds to purchase materials, the Doha agreement released $3 billion, and the US side persuaded it to give up imposing transit fees. Affected by the interplay of bullish and bearish factors, overnight copper prices moved sideways. On the fundamentals side, supply-side shipments were limited, low-priced spot cargoes were in short supply, and overall supply remained tight. On the demand side, downstream users continued to stay on the sidelines, and demand was weak. In summary, copper prices are expected to maintain a drift higher today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment, research, or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions prudently, and should not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients have nothing to do with Shanghai Metals Market.]
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