TOPCon Cell Prices Across All Sizes Fall, EVA Resin Continues to Move Sideways [SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM, July 2:

Solar Cell

Price

The downward trend continued for all-size Topcon quotes, with the trading range for 183N and 210R shifting down to 0.27-0.28 yuan/W. Mainstream producers quoted around 0.275 yuan/W, while some producers could negotiate to 0.27 yuan/W to facilitate deals. The transaction center continued to decline. Issues such as inventory backlog and shipment pressure at producers remained unresolved, module procurement volume downstream did not show notable release, and buyers pushed strongly for lower prices, making it increasingly difficult to close new orders. Solar cell plants had to passively follow the market and offer concessions to move products, and in the short term, the futures market still had room for downward exploration.

Production

The industry's initial production schedule for July showed an upward trend, with the increase mainly coming from the simultaneous expansion of cell production supporting the modules of integrated companies. Previously, specialized solar cell plants generally planned to keep June production unchanged, but recently some producers have started preparation for production cuts. The final adjustment to actual operating rates in July still needed to be determined based on the scale of orders that month and the progress of inventory digestion.

Inventory

This week, the overall inventory level in the industry rose further WoW. Supply-side output stayed high, but the pace of module procurement and digestion downstream was slow. The mismatch between production and sales intensified, and combined with the concentrated destocking demand at month-end, the inventory pressure situation worsened further, continuing to suppress price stabilization.

Module

Price

This week, domestic module prices maintained a downward trend. Among them, quotes from centralized enterprises in China fell significantly. In recently opened tenders, the lowest TOPCon bid had fallen to 0.685 yuan/W, and the transaction intention center continued to decline. Distributed market prices also declined recently, but high-efficiency products held prices firmer compared to conventional products. With domestic demand expected to remain sluggish, module prices maintained their downward trend. Currently, distributed high-efficiency Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N modules were quoted at 0.731 yuan/W, 0.736 yuan/W, and 0.7385 yuan/W respectively, while centralized high-efficiency Topcon 182/183 and 210N modules were quoted at 0.7165 yuan/W and 0.7365 yuan/W respectively.

Production

Recently, the operating rates of domestic module plants increased somewhat, as earlier projects that won orders at low prices began production and delivery, but most enterprises mainly produced based on demand.

Inventory

This week, domestic module inventory declined slightly, with distributors making appropriate purchases, and some earlier centralized projects starting delivery.

PV Film

Price:

PV-grade EVA/POE:

Currently, the spot price of PV-grade EVA resin is 9,500-9,600 yuan/mt, and prices remain stable. Some EVA units undergoing maintenance combined with just-in-time procurement by film manufacturers have formed bottom support. Meanwhile, EVA resin producers currently have little inventory pressure, leading to limited willingness to cut prices. Although module scheduled production in July has rebounded, it is mainly for order delivery, and end-use demand growth is limited, so there is also a lack of drivers for price increases. In the short term, PV-grade EVA resin is expected to continue moving sideways.

PV Film:

Currently, the price of 420g clear EVA film is 4.98-5.06 yuan/m², and the price of 380g EPE film is 5.07-5.15 yuan/m². Overall film prices have fallen. Influenced by the pullback in PV-grade EVA prices in June and the weakening international oil price which loosened costs, downstream module manufacturers' desire to bargain down prices significantly increased, and quotations for newly signed film orders have moved down from earlier levels.

Production

This week, a PV-grade EVA unit shutdown was offset by some petrochemical plants switching to produce PV-grade materials, resulting in a slight increase in overall PV-grade EVA production. Film manufacturers' July production plans are up about 6-7% MoM from June, and downstream demand is showing a mild recovery.

Inventory

Currently, PV-grade EVA inventories remain at reasonable levels. Film manufacturers maintain a conservative procurement pace, sticking to a just-in-time procurement strategy, and overall industry inventories are within manageable ranges.

PV Glass:

Price

3.2mm single-layer coating: 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass is quoted at 15-16 yuan/m², and prices remain stable.

3.2mm double-layer coating: 3.2mm double-layer coated PV glass is quoted at 16-17 yuan/m², and prices remain stable.

2.0mm single-layer coating: 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass is quoted at 8.5-9.5 yuan/m². This week, glass prices have been temporarily stable. Currently, the number of discounted orders below 8.5 yuan/m² is gradually decreasing, and the industry benchmark price remains between 8.5-9.0 yuan/W. Prices in July are expected to remain in a deadlock, mainly due to lackluster module segment procurement demand.

2.0mm double-layer coating: 2.0mm double-layer coated PV glass is quoted at 9.5-10.5 yuan/m², and prices remain stable.

Production

This week, domestic operating rates remained stable, with no new shutdowns or cold repairs of furnaces. The previously planned pace of production cuts has slowed down.

Inventory

Recently, days of inventory have remained basically stable, but some enterprises holding prices firm and holding back from selling led to a slight increase in their inventories.