★ Macro ★
01 ★★ [Oil Prices May Return to the 7-Yuan Era]
According to China's refined oil product price adjustment cycle, the 13th adjustment window of the year will open at 24:00 on July 3, with only 3 statistical working days remaining and 70% of the current pricing cycle completed. As reported by Dazhong Daily, the decline in oil prices has continued to widen during this cycle, deepening for six consecutive days from an initial drop of just over 0.4 yuan to the current level exceeding 0.65 yuan. The trend of a substantial cut appears largely irreversible, and this Friday evening may mark the year's first triple consecutive decline in oil prices, as well as the fourth price reduction in 2024.
As of the calculation data from the 7th working day, estimated figures show a cut of 820 yuan/mt for gasoline and 790 yuan/mt for diesel. Converted to retail terminal unit prices, estimates show a drop of 0.66 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 0.7 yuan per liter for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.68 yuan per liter for 0# diesel. The two previous adjustments in June had already achieved a double consecutive decline, with cumulative cuts of 1,040 yuan/mt and 1,000 yuan/mt for gasoline and diesel respectively, equivalent to a cumulative price drop of between 0.84 and 0.89 yuan per liter. The price of 92-octane gasoline has fallen below 8 yuan, returning to the 7-yuan range. Once this round of cuts takes effect, the national average price for 95-octane gasoline may fall below 8 yuan, re-entering the 7-yuan era.
02 ★★ [US and Iranian Officials to Hold Indirect Talks in Doha]
Sources stated on July 1 that officials from the US and Iran will hold indirect talks in the Qatari capital, Doha, later that day.
★ Industry and Downstream ★
01 ★★ [Shenzhen Real Estate Market Hits New High for June Transactions in Nearly Six Years]
According to data released today by the Shenzhen Centaline Research Center, first-hand and second-hand residential transactions in Shenzhen totaled 8,878 units in June, down 11.9% MoM yet up 14.2% YoY. The combined transaction volume was the highest for the same period since 2021. Specifically, online registrations for new housing (pre-sale and existing) amounted to 3,785 units, a decrease of 16.7% MoM but an increase of 15.6% YoY, while second-hand housing transfers reached 5,093 units, down 8% MoM but up 13.1% YoY. Monitoring data indicates that both new home pre-sales and second-hand home transactions in Shenzhen for the month reached record highs for the same period over the past six years, marking the best June performance for the property market in nearly six years.
02 ★★ [China-Made Air Conditioners See Export Orders Surge from Europe]
Data shows that only about 20% of European households have air conditioning installed. Due to the concentrated surge in European demand for cooling, export orders for Chinese-made air conditioners have continued to grow. Air conditioning enterprises are working overtime to produce and fulfill these export orders. At an enterprise's air conditioner production workshop in Jiangmen, Guangdong, workers are rushing to assemble air conditioner parts. Since March this year, the enterprise’s export orders to the European market saw a sharp increase, with exports in May exceeding 800,000 units, up 20.3% YoY. The person in charge told the reporter that many residential buildings in Europe were built long ago, building facades are subject to strict controls, and installation procedures for traditional split air conditioners are complicated with high approval thresholds. Mobile air conditioners produced by Chinese enterprises, which require no outdoor unit and no wall drilling, precisely match the usage scenarios of local homes, apartments, and shops. An air conditioner enterprise’s sales in the French market in June surged over 100% YoY, while its Italian market sales rose 30% YoY in June.
03 ★★ [Chongqing: Promoting Housing "Trade-in" and Optimizing Support Policies such as "Selling Smaller to Buy Larger" and "Transfer with Mortgage"]
The Chongqing Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Committee is publicly soliciting opinions on the "Chongqing Urban Housing High-Quality Development 15th Five-Year Plan (Draft for Comments)". It proposes to promote a virtuous cycle in the new and second-hand housing markets, advance housing "trade-in", optimize support policies such as "selling smaller to buy larger" and "transfer with mortgage", reduce transaction costs, and foster synergy between the new and second-hand housing markets. Based on the "Yuyue Anju" system, fully implement online contract signing services for existing homes, establish and improve mechanisms for supervision of existing home transaction funds, listing and release of property listings, and price monitoring; simplify the transaction process, strengthen real estate registration information sharing, automatically verify property information, and promote "one-stop acceptance" and full online processing of transaction services.
04 ★★ [TISCO Steel Science & Technology Company Successfully Trials T1100S-Grade Ultra-High-Strength Carbon Fiber in a Single Attempt]
According to China Baowu, recently, the TISCO Steel Science & Technology Company under China Baowu successfully trial-produced T1100S-grade ultra-high-strength carbon fiber in a single attempt, with excellent performance across all key indicators, reaching domestic leading and international advanced levels.
Carbon fiber is a key strategic material supporting aerospace and high-end equipment manufacturing. From aircraft structural components to rocket casings, breakthroughs in lightweight materials directly determine the performance ceiling of equipment. The T1100S grade, meanwhile, is a top-tier high-modulus, ultra-high-strength carbon fiber in the industry, with extremely high technical barriers, and has long been a key focus of China’s new material breakthroughs.
05 ★★ [In H1, New Home Prices in 100 Chinese Cities Edge Up Cumulatively, While Second-Hand Home Prices Fall]
In the first half of this year, new home prices in 100 Chinese cities continued a structural uptrend. In June, the average new home price in the 100 cities was 17,184 yuan per m², up 0.16% MoM and up 2% YoY. Second-hand home prices in the 100 cities fell cumulatively. In June, the average second-hand home price in the 100 cities was 12,639 yuan per m², down 0.42% MoM and down 7.68% YoY. Core cities were the first to show positive signals: Shenzhen’s second-hand home prices turned to a month-on-month increase in June, while Shanghai’s second-hand home prices rose MoM for four consecutive months.
★Other Hot Topics★
⭕[China Fully Enters Main Flooding Season Today]Starting July 1, China fully entered the main flooding season. According to forecasts and comprehensive assessments, during the main flooding season (July–August), both northern and southern China will see areas of heavy rainfall, with the north facing relatively severe flooding, more frequent localized extreme rainstorms and floods, and stronger typhoons moving northward to affect inland areas. Meanwhile, parts of the southwest and northwest may experience periodic droughts due to high temperatures and low rainfall. The flood control and drought relief situation is severe and complex. On the morning of July 1, the Ministry of Water Resources organized a rolling consultation to analyze and assess the current and near-term development of rainfall, water conditions, flooding, and drought, and deployed targeted key preventive measures accordingly. Based on the 24-hour rainfall forecast, the ministry issued province-specific targeted early warnings to 14 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), including Liaoning, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Guangxi, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Gansu, Qinghai, and Xinjiang. These warnings detailed lists of counties (cities and districts) under heavy rainfall coverage, reservoir lists, and flash flood disaster risk areas and locations, and reminded relevant parties to ensure safe reservoir operation during flooding, and to guard against small and medium river floods and flash flood disasters.
⭕[Domestic Route Fuel Surcharges to Be Sharply Cut from July 5]9 Air issued a notice today stating that effective July 5, 2026 (ticket issuance date), domestic route fuel surcharges will be reduced. For routes over 800 kilometers, each passenger will be charged 100 yuan, and for routes of 800 kilometers or less, each passenger will be charged 50 yuan, representing cuts of 50 yuan and 30 yuan, respectively, from the previous levels. In April and May this year, domestic fuel surcharges were raised significantly for consecutive months. Starting June 5, they were reduced by 20 yuan and 10 yuan for the two categories. With the decline in fuel prices, the fuel surcharge reduction in July is much larger.
⭕["US ADP Employment Data" Lower Than Expected]US ADP employment for June was 98,000, the lowest increase since March, below the expected 118,000. The prior reading was 122,000.
*This report is an original work and/or compilation produced exclusively by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"). SMM legally holds the copyright and is protected by the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China and other applicable laws and international treaties. No reproduction, modification, sale, transfer, display, translation, compilation, dissemination, or any other form of disclosure of the above content to third parties or licensing thereof is permitted without written authorization. Otherwise, upon discovery, SMM will pursue legal action for infringement, including but not limited to demanding the assumption of contractual breach liability, restitution of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses. All contents contained in this report, including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, sounds, videos, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, and any or all other information, are protected by the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties concerning copyrights, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data and information property rights, and other rights. They are owned or held by SMM and its relevant rights holders. Without written permission, no organization or individual may reproduce, modify, use, sell, transfer, display, translate, compile, disseminate, or otherwise disclose the above content to any third party or permit any third party to use it. Otherwise, upon discovery, SMM will pursue legal action for infringement, including but not limited to demanding the assumption of contractual breach liability, restitution of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses. The views expressed in this report are based on information gathered from the market and the comprehensive assessment of SMM's research team. The information provided in this report is for reference only, and risks are borne by the user. This report does not constitute direct investment research decision advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not replace independent judgment with this report. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM. Furthermore, any losses or liabilities arising from the unauthorized or illegal use of the views in this report are unrelated to SMM. SMM reserves the right to amend and the final right to interpret the terms of this statement.
![[SMM HRC Daily Trading Volume] Spot HRC Trading Weak](https://imgqn.smm.cn/usercenter/ENDOs20251217171718.jpg)
