SMM July 1:
Today, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the current-month SHFE 2606 contract were quoted at parity to a premium of 80 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 40 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In early trading, the SHFE copper 2607 contract opened lower with a gap at 102,750 yuan/mt, then fell quickly to 102,200 yuan/mt, followed by a weak decline, dipping to an intraday low of 101,800 yuan/mt. Prices then stabilized and edged up slightly, closing at 102,020 yuan/mt. The inter-month spread ranged from a contango of 50 yuan/mt to a backwardation of 20 yuan/mt. The import profit margin for SHFE copper against the 2607 contract was between a loss of 310 yuan/mt and a loss of 230 yuan/mt.
During the day, the selling sentiment for copper cathode in Shanghai stood at 2.78, up 0.16 day on day, and the buying sentiment was 2.72, up 0.23 day on day. Historical data can be queried in the database. At the beginning of the morning session, market shipments were limited. Suppliers initially quoted standard-quality copper at parity to a premium of 20 yuan/mt, with Lufang, JCC, etc., at a premium of 20 yuan/mt; Zhongtiaoshan, Tiefeng, Jinfeng, Zijin, Yuguang, etc., at parity to a premium of 10 yuan/mt; and non-registered copper at a discount of 180-150 yuan/mt. Among them, cargoes at a discount of 180 yuan/mt were traded quickly, leaving scarce low-priced material in the market. Subsequently, suppliers slightly lowered their offers for standard-quality copper. Standard-quality brands such as Zhongtiaoshan and Dajiang HS were traded at a discount of 10 yuan/mt, while Jinchuan ISA Yongchang shifted from an initial premium of 20 yuan/mt to parity. Brands like Jintun PC, Jinguan, Jinxin, Jinfeng were quoted EXW at a premium of 20 yuan/mt. High-quality copper such as Guixi and Jintun large plate were quoted at a premium of 50-80 yuan/mt. In the second session, trading became sluggish with little change in prices.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, today was the first trading day of July, kicking off a new monthly procurement cycle. Downstream enterprises released some restocking demand at the beginning of the month, leading to a notable rebound in both buying and selling sentiment and improved market activity. From the perspective of supplier behavior, after low-priced cargoes became scarce, suppliers showed a willingness to hold prices firm, with high-quality copper premiums remaining at a high of 50-80 yuan/mt. The inter-month spread was near a flat structure, limiting the arbitrage gains from holding positions for delivery and reducing the willingness to sell at low prices, which provided support for spot discounts. Overall, with restocking demand at the start of the month, low copper prices attracting buying interest, and suppliers holding prices firm, Shanghai spot copper against the 2607 contract is expected to edge up tomorrow.
