The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Pulled Back After Probing Highs, Consolidating Around 390,000 This Morning [SMM Tin Midday Review]

July 1, 2026 Tin Midday Review

Tin markets in and outside China consolidated, with the most-traded SHFE tin contract opening at 394,230 yuan/mt and closing at 392,930 yuan/mt in the morning session, up 0.93%. On the LME, the three-month tin futures were currently quoted at $50,860/mt, down 1.53%.

On the macro front:

(1) The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated on June 30 that there were no plans to negotiate with the US in recent days, only sending an expert delegation to Doha to verify the progress of asset unfreezing under the memorandum of understanding, and refused direct contact with US personnel. The precondition for negotiations was the complete cessation of airstrikes by the US, the unfreezing of overseas assets, and urging Israeli forces to withdraw from southern Lebanon.

(2) Cleveland Fed's Hammack publicly stated on July 1 that the current pullback in inflation is insufficient relative to policy targets, and there is room for a 25bp rate hike at the September FOMC meeting; CME interest rate futures concurrently raised the probability of a September rate hike to 80%; the overnight 10-year Treasury yield rose 9.27bp to 4.465%, and the US dollar index rebounded slightly to close at 101.17.

In the spot market, trading was relatively mediocre this morning. Suppliers actively quoted prices in line with the market, but as absolute prices had pulled back earlier, the phased purchasing and restocking demand from downstream and end-user manufacturing enterprises had basically been met. Against the backdrop of today's slight rebound in futures prices, buyers had no plans for large-scale purchases, overall maintaining sporadic small purchases based on rigid demand. After completing phased regular procurement, all segments of the industry chain returned to cautious operation.

Overall, the tin market's futures are still dominated by macro-fund sentiment. Expectations of tightening liquidity, a strong US dollar, and the rebound in Treasury yields again pressured the overall valuation of the non-ferrous metals sector into correction. Meanwhile, the US-Iran meeting in Doha saw no direct contact, and the geopolitical conflict remained stalemated in the absence of substantive breakthroughs, with the market's assessment of geopolitical premiums becoming more rational. On the industrial fundamentals side, the release of rigid demand at low levels and wait-and-see sentiment at high levels in the spot market, to some extent, limited the upside and downside of price fluctuations. In the short term, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to maintain a pattern of wild swings under the influence of macro factors.